Mexico vs. Ecuador Expert Pick and Prediction – June 30, 2024

MEXICO VS. ECUADOR EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 30, 2024 — The United States’ plight in Group C looks like Shangri-La compared to Mexico’s situation. Group B was supposed to be the easiest at Copa America by a mile. Mexico drew two middling CONMEBOL opponents in Ecuador and Venezuela, plus a CONCACAF foe in Jamaica. None of El Tricolores’ opponents were ranked in the top 30 in the world. Progression seemed a sure thing.

Except it hasn’t happened. Mexico wheezed past Jamaica, then managed to lose to Venezuela. To put that into perspective, Venezuela is the only South American nation that has never played in the World Cup. For Mexico, the expectation is not only to qualify for major tournaments, but to get out of the group stage and possibly win a knockout match.

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That’s a long way of saying that there’s a lot of panic south of the border. Mexico crashed out of the group stage in 2022’s World Cup, and going out here against the weakest group by far would devastate the Mexicans ahead of 2026. Unlike most years, where Mexico could toughen up against the likes of the United States and Costa Rica in qualifiers, there is no qualification for Mexico this time. The Mexicans are co-hosts and automatic qualifiers for 2026, so this is it.

And that’s why Mexico is on its third coach in 18 months. But it doesn’t seem like El Tri is capable of fixing this. Before losing to Venezuela on Matchday 1, Ecuador’s only defeats in the past two years were Argentina twice and Italy. This doesn’t tend to be Ecuador’s tournament: La Tricolores have won just four Copa America matches in the past 25 years. But after besting Jamaica, a draw will see them through to the knockouts.

Kickoff

Teams: Mexico vs. Ecuador

When: Sunday, June 30 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.

TV: FS1

Spread: Mexico 0/Ecuador 0

Moneyline: Mexico +190/Ecuador +165/Draw +205

Totals: Over 2.5 (+145)/Under 2.5 (-185)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 29th, 2024 

Scouting Mexico

There’s a saying in soccer that a team has gone a tournament too far. In Mexico’s case, this group might have gone two tournaments too far. The Mexicans have been one of the oldest teams in the tournament for three tournaments in a row now, and they’ve paid the price. In 2018, they barely snuck out of the group because South Korea took advantage of Germany’s lapses. In 2022, Mexico couldn’t make it out of the group, as it managed just three points.

This Mexican side hasn’t looked good in the attack at all. It’s appeared slow, unimaginative and unable to unlock good defenses. They survived Jamaica, but they haven’t looked at all like beating a top opponent in this tournament.

Scouting Ecuador

Not having Enner Valencia against Jamaica could have been disastrous for Ecuador. The striker got sent off against Venezuela on matchday one, and Ecuador had to rely on other options to step up. They survived that match and earned a win, and now they get Valencia back following his one-match suspension.

Valencia has 41 goals all-time for Ecuador, seven more than the rest of his team combined. If La Tricolores decides to go for the win (which isn’t needed), it will likely attempt to get Valencia in space.

Best Bets

Ecuador Win (+165): Even a draw would be enough to get Ecuador on to the quarterfinals. Focusing on getting that result should open things up for them when they get out of this group.

Both Teams to Score, Yes (-105): Ecuador doesn’t keep many clean sheets. This time, it has a chance to do it because Mexico hasn’t had any one step up. With the past four matches seeing both sides score, this is a sensible play.

Ecuador 2-1 (+750): Mexico will push hard and might find a goal in this meeting, but it’s clear that that the Mexican side is disjointed. They’re on their third coach in 18 months, which means the players simply aren’t good enough to get the results Mexico wants. That will show up again here if they don’t fix it fast.