New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants Expert Pick and Prediction – April 20, 2023

NEW YORK METS VS. SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – April 20, 2023 — The Giants have to be wondering who they upset in the MLB schedule maker’s offices with how this game sets up. Normally, a home series against a team from the opposite coast is a favorable thing, but this time, it’s the Mets who’ve caught the break from the schedule.

New York has been in California since Friday, having played in Oakland last weekend and then gone to Los Angeles to face the Dodgers. Meanwhile, the Giants found themselves playing extra innings in Miami, which means they’re the ones who have to cross three time zones and cover 3,000 miles for a game that they’re hosting.

To make matters worse, San Francisco played extras against Miami on Wednesday, finally emerging with a win after 11 innings. That might put some extra pressure on Sean Manaea to come up with a quality start, something he’s only done once this season. It gets worse for the Giants: instead of the inconsistent David Peterson, who normally follows Max Scherzer in the Mets’ rotation, they’ll see strikeout pitcher Kodai Senga. Senga’s missing seven bats a game, and now he’s facing the team that fans more than any other in baseball.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Thursday, April 20th at 9:45 pm EST

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Starting Pitchers: Kodai Senga, NYM (2-0, 3.38 ERA, 21 K’s) vs. Sean Manaea, SF (0-0, 4.76 ERA, 13 K’s) 

Public Bets: 79% on New York

Public Money: 79% on New York

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of April 20th, 2023

New York vs. San Francisco In-Season Trends

Even before throwing in the travel problems of coming from South Florida, the Giants aren’t good series starters. They’ve dropped the opening game of their past four series, and they’ve followed up their past seven wins with a loss in their next game. The Mets are the opposite, winning the opener in 42 of their past 60 series, a mark that dates back well into last year. New York has won the series opener in five of six series this season, including each of its past three.

The totals are a harder nut to crack here, given that the teams only play six times a year and haven’t yet met this season. But when the teams have met, there’s been fireworks; the OVER has cashed in four of the past five meetings.

Players to Watch

This needs to be Senga’s game. The Mets’ pitcher has done well at missing bats this season, striking out at least six in all three of his starts this year. The Marlins and the Athletics don’t have the greatest offenses, but neither ranks in the top 10 in MLB in strikeouts. The Giants, on the other hand, have fanned 188 times in 17 games, an average of 11.1 per game. No other team has averaged more than 9 strikeouts per game, which should set Senga up for a lot of whiffs in this matchup.

On the offensive side of the ball, Pete Alonso homered in his past two games in the Bay Area, and he’s tied for the MLB lead with eight home runs on the year. Given that the Giants’ bullpen has mostly been a dumpster fire, giving up 11 home runs this season, Alonso should have multiple good chances to launch one. The wind will be blowing out to dead center at 16 miles per hour at first pitch, so the conditions are right for the Mets’ slugger.

The Pick

There’s little reason to expect the Giants to put up much of a fight here. San Francisco is the weaker team and has to travel across the country to get to this game against a Mets squad that tends to start quickly. Throw in a pitcher that offers a terrible matchup for an offense that strikes out far too often and a weak bullpen, and there’s a lot of ways this can easily go wrong for the Giants.

New York’s won six of seven, and it’s been doing most of its damage against better teams than San Francisco. The Mets should handle this one.

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