Mets vs. Brewers: NL Wild Card Analysis
METS VS. BREWERS: NL WILD CARD ANALYSIS — Can you run your way through a postseason series? Milwaukee’s going to try to find out, as the Brewers now face off with the Mets again in a battle of speed vs. power. Milwaukee ranked second in the majors in stolen bases behind Washington, and the Brewers put the gas on against the Mets in the regular season. Milwaukee went 5-1 against New York in the regular season, and the only loss came in the meaningless finale.
And they did it by going crazy on the bases. Milwaukee swiped 17 bases in six games against the Mets, and the Brewers didn’t have a single baserunner caught stealing. The best the Mets could do was pick off one runner, which did nothing to stop the Brewer base stealing.
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If the Mets intend to turn the tables, they’re going to have to outslug Milwaukee. New York is built around the long ball, hitting 207 home runs on the year. However, the Mets weren’t able to do it in the regular season, scoring one run or less in three of their five defeats. The bullpen isn’t anywhere near what Milwaukee is capable of, so the Mets aren’t winning this series there.
They’ve got to get to the Brewers’ starters, get good starting pitching and hold on in the late innings. It’s not a great formula for success, but it’s what the Mets have. If the starters come through, then the Mets can win this series. But if they fall behind early, they will not last long.
The Series
Game 1: Tuesday, October 1 at 5:30 p.m. EST
Game 2: Wednesday, October 2 at 7:30 p.m. EST
Game 3 (if necessary): Thursday, October 3 at 8:30 p.m. EST
TV: Game 1 and Game 2 will be shown on ESPN. Game 3 will be shown on ESPN2.
Where: All games will be played at American Family Field in Milwaukee.
Mets vs. Brewers In-Season Trends
Only one of the six games between the teams was decided by a single run, so don’t look for close here. That might help the Mets’ already thin bullpen. New York turned to Edwin Diaz to save its season against Atlanta, and the closer did exactly what he’s paid to do. But he might not have much left for this series, so the Mets will need to plan on winning by large margins.
The Brewers really didn’t have much trouble putting runs together when facing New York. In five wins, the Brewers scored 27 runs against the Mets. The one exception was a shutout loss in the season finale, but it’s important to remember Milwaukee didn’t need that game. It’s also important to remember Milwaukee has dominated New York. In the past two years, the Brewers have gone 12-2.
Players to Watch
Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor have to get hot at the plate if the Mets are going to make a run. The two combined to slug 67 home runs on the year, and having both hit regularly would make a big difference.
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Milwaukee is going to have much of its strategy turn on Brice Turang. Turang stole 50 bases during the regular season, more than double that of anyone else in blue and gold. But he has to get on regularly to make the strategy work.
The Prediction
The Brewers had the better team in the regular season, and that’s before the Mets had to burn through multiple pitchers just to get into this series. Milwaukee is unafraid to use its speed and has the pitching needed to keep the ball in the park and keep the Mets from putting up runs.
The Mets have had a good run to get here, but it appears to be kind of smoke and mirrors. The Brewers are the more dependable option in this matchup.
Prediction: Brewers in two
