Mets vs. Braves: Monday, September 30, 2024

METS VS. BRAVES: MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30, 2024 — And so we’ve reached the MLB doubleheader, and we’re down to two games to decide the playoffs. Two out of Atlanta, New York and Arizona will go to the playoffs, with Sunday’s results leaving the idle Diamondbacks nervously awaiting their fate.

The good news for Arizona is that it gave itself a chance by winning Sunday. The bad news for them is that the Mets also won, so the Diamondbacks are in a pickle. If either team sweeps the doubleheader, the Diamondbacks qualify as the last seed in the National League. If that doesn’t happen, Atlanta and the Mets both advance and Arizona’s season is over.

Related: AL Wild Card Analysis: Royals vs. Orioles

And that means that there’s a chess match going on in Georgia. Both teams want to get the win they need to reach the playoffs, but both want to preserve their pitching for the wild card series. Both teams have their best options ready to go in Game 2, but only the loser of Game 1 will throw their best. And that makes this the harder of the two games to predict and the spot where you’ll get better odds.

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Monday, September 30 at 1:10 p.m. EST

Where: Truist Field, Atlanta

Starting Pitchers: Tylor Megill, NYM (4-5, 3.98 ERA, 83 K’s) vs. Spencer Schwellenbach, ATL (8-7, 3.47 ERA, 122 K’s)

Public Bets: 86% on Atlanta

Public Money: 89% on Atlanta

Mets vs. Braves In-Season Trends

These teams have traded blows all season long. Atlanta won the past three meetings, but the Mets had won three straight before that. And that’s why these teams have come right down to the wire for this spot; they have been even in practically every way.

Atlanta also has the edge by one game in the season-long series. And that’s why the Braves are playing with an edge here. One win means Atlanta locks up the No. 5 seed and can do nothing to improve its seed in the final game. And that’s why Arizona is rooting hard for New York to win the first game. If the Mets win, they would still have something to play for in the final game, as they could move up to No. 5 ahead of Arizona with a sweep. If the Braves win, it comes down to whether or not they want to keep the Mets out.

Players to Watch

In this matchup, both pitchers are the ones to watch for an obvious reason. Both teams are going to react to the way the first game unfolds. If either starter gets a good lead, the team losing will likely save itself for the second game, which then becomes must-win. If either starter gets off to a bad start, look for someone to go to the bullpen early. In short, this will be managed like a Game 7, with the caveat that there is a second chance.

The Prediction

It’s tough to make a pick in this situation, but the Mets seem like they’re better set up to win this one. Megill has been lights out over his past three starts, and Atlanta really kicked away a golden opportunity last time out. The Braves should get one out of two with Chris Sale going, but the Mets look like the better value for Game 1.