Mets vs. Braves Expert Pick and Prediction – June 6, 2023

METS VS. BRAVES EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – June 6, 2023 – If the Mets are going to make a run at the NL East, they’re going to have to figure out how to win at Truist Park.

Last year, Atlanta dominated the Mets over the final six weeks of the season by beating New York six out of seven in Georgia, which lifted the Braves to the NL East title by virtue of the tiebreaker. That proved critical when the Mets then lost to the San Diego Padres in the wild card round, ending their season before they even got a chance in the NLDS. 

But so far, the Mets don’t seem to have learned their lesson. They haven’t figured out how to play outside of Queens, going just 15-18 away from Citi Field. They also haven’t figured out the Braves, as Atlanta won two out of three in Queens during the teams’ only series this season.

And to make matters worse, they’re coming off a three-game sweep and facing Bryce Elder, who’s proving to be the next top arm from an already loaded pitching rotation. If the Mets can’t get their offense going, they’re going to dig their hole even deeper.

Click here to read more baseball coverage. 

The Odds

First Pitch

When: Tuesday, June 6th at 7:20 p.m. EDT

Where: Truist Park, Atlanta

Starting Pitchers: Carlos Carrasco, NYM (2-2, 5.74 ERA, 19 K’s) vs. Bryce Elder, ATL (3-0, 1.92 ERA, 56 K’s) 

Public Bets: 76% on Atlanta

Public Money: 53% on Atlanta

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of June 6th, 2023

New York vs. Atlanta In-Season Trends

The Mets’ offense really boils down to three players: Pete Alonso’s home run power, Francisco Lindor driving in runs and Starling Marte getting into scoring position with a stolen base.

That’s really about it for the New York offense, which is why the Mets have played UNDER in five of their past six contests and haven’t topped four runs in any of them.

The Mets also haven’t done much against quality teams, losing 16 of their past 22 games against teams who are above .500.

Meanwhile, Atlanta has dominated the NL East. The Braves have gone 36-15 in their past 51 games against their divisional rivals, including winning eight of their past 10 against New York. Atlanta’s not a great hitting team either, but the Braves hit very well at home, playing OVER in 18 of their past 26 games at Truist Park.

Players to Watch

The question with Carrasco is whether his recent performances are for real. Carrasco pitched poorly in April, but after three starts, he landed on the injured list with a bone chip in his elbow. Since then, he’s had two strong starts and one questionable one, giving up seven runs in his past 17 2/3 innings of work. He hasn’t been getting much on the strikeout front, as he hasn’t topped four K’s in any of his starts this season.

Bryce Elder has basically done whatever he’s needed to do to get his team in position to win. In 10 starts, he’s held the opponent to two runs or less, with the lone exceptions coming in games where Atlanta put up at least six runs. 

The Pick

The Mets just don’t have enough offense to make me think they’re going to threaten Elder through the first five innings. The lack of consistency on the part of Atlanta’s hitters make me a little skittish on the overall total, but I think there’s plenty of opportunity to get in and out with a first five innings bet on the Mets’ lack of offense.

New York might get going once Elder leaves, but I think they dig the hole too deep in the early going to pull this off.