Memphis vs. West Virginia Expert Pick and Prediction – December 17, 2024

MEMPHIS VS. WEST VIRGINIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 17, 2024 — With West Virginia already having fired its coach, the Mountaineers face the awkward situation of having to figure out how to play with an interim leader. Even though Rich Rodriguez has already announced his return to Morgantown, he’s not involved with the preparations for the Frisco Bowl.

Instead, Chad Scott will be the one calling plays for the Mountaineers. Scott was the offensive coordinator for the Mountaineers, a logical choice given just how bad the Mountaineer defense was this season. Jordan Lesley was already fired earlier this season, and it didn’t make much of a difference: West Virginia finished 106th nationally in points allowed.

Related: The Return of Rich Rodriguez

Given that Memphis can pass and passing was the weak point of a weak defense, this could be a high-scoring shootout. It hasn’t helped that West Virginia lost three defensive backs to the transfer portal, which means an already weak point got even worse. Memphis also lost three defensive players, although the Tigers’ losses weren’t quite as extensive as those of the Mountaineers. This team also won 10 games; Memphis has a fair amount of talent.

And yet, the pressure still lands on West Virginia as the Power 4 school. That can be a tricky thing in bowl games: the Mountaineers are supposed to beat teams from the American. But Memphis was the fourth-best team in that league and will be motivated. That’s why the Tigers are favored here: they appear to be the stronger team both on paper and on the field.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Tuesday, December 17 at 9 p.m.

Where: Toyota Stadium, Frisco, Texas

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Memphis vs. West Virginia In-Season Trends

This total is a little low by Memphis’ standards. The Tigers are 5-1 to the over in their past six games, and the lone exception was a 27-20 matchup with Rice. Memphis tends to put up points quickly, but the defense also doesn’t prevent them very well. Against Navy, not exactly known for scoring, the teams combined to score 100 points in a 56-44 win for the Midshipmen.

Related: Why Ohio State Should Fire Ryan Day

The over is also 5-1 in West Virginia’s past six games, and that has a lot to do with the Mountaineers’ struggles on defense. West Virginia allowed 52 to Texas Tech and 49 to Baylor over the final three weeks of the season. The Mountaineers did go 6-6 on the year, but the record is really deceptive. Not one of the Mountaineers’ six victims made it to postseason play, and the five Big 12 teams they beat combined to go 11-34 in the league.

Weather

Once the storms roll out of northern Texas in the morning, the weather should be pretty good. Temperatures will sit at 66 degrees for this one.

The Difference-Makers

Having Garrett Greene helps, as long as he can avoid making mistakes with the football. Greene was pretty erratic as the season reached its end, throwing seven interceptions in his final five games of the season. Out of those five games, the only one the Mountaineers won (against Central Florida) was the one game in which Greene didn’t throw an interception.

Related: Mack Brown’s Firing

Memphis is in kind of a catch-22. The Mountaineers’ biggest weakness is their pass defense, but the two games the Tigers lost were the two highest passing totals of the year for Seth Henigan. The Tigers’ ideal setup would be to attack through the air with Henigan without abandoning the run game entirely.

The Pick

If West Virginia were at full strength, it might have a chance to win this shootout. But this really seems a bad matchup with how explosive the Memphis offense can be. The Tigers can score all day, and the Mountaineers don’t appear capable of stopping them.

Related: Defense of James Franklin

West Virginia should put up some points of its own, but Greene is likely to hurt the cause with an ill-timed interception. Memphis should finish this game with a couple short fields, which will make the difference.