Memphis vs. Connecticut Expert Pick and Prediction – November 25, 2024

MEMPHIS VS. CONNECTICUT EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 25, 2024 — Anyone remember when this was a conference matchup? Connecticut used to be in the American, but the Huskies left for the Big East when they realized they could do better de-emphasizing football.

And the Huskies are now the two-time national champions with their eyes on a third championship. Meanwhile, the Tigers are hoping for some kind of breakthrough. Penny Hardaway has been a 20-win coach every year he’s been in Memphis, but that’s not good enough in a weakened American. Memphis missed the postseason last year when their good wins in November collapsed into nothing notable and they picked up several bad losses in league play.

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Other than Dayton, Memphis probably has the most to prove in this Maui field. Outside of Florida Atlantic and North Texas — the latter of whom they don’t get to play on the road, making that a Quad 2 game at best — the Tigers won’t get any chances for good wins after December. They either do the job now, or they pretty much have to win the league tournament.

That kind of pressure can work either way, especially with Connecticut both yet to prove itself and used to facing bad offenses. The Huskies did play a run-first team in New Hampshire, but the Wildcats are nowhere near what the Tigers bring to the table.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Monday, November 25 at 2:30 p.m.

Where: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawai’i.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Memphis vs. Connecticut In-Season Trends

The teams could hardly have taken different approaches to their schedules. Knowing that it won’t get any good win opportunities elsewhere, Memphis went for the brutally difficult slate. So far, the Tigers have been up to it, beating Missouri at home and winning true road games against UNLV and San Francisco. The worst team Memphis will see until January is Ohio, and the Bobcats are one of the stronger teams in the MAC. Clearly, Memphis is going for making the tournament in the non-conference.

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With 20 Big East games on the slate, Connecticut hasn’t had to do that. The Huskies have not bothered to test themselves and have played only one team ranked in the top 300 (Sacred Heart, 291st). Dan Hurley clearly believes that a difficult December and a rugged Big East will be more than enough to get his team ready for March. With two national titles under his belt, nobody’s going to argue.

The Difference-Makers

The knock on the Memphis defense is that the Tigers either force the turnover or give up a good look at the basket. Tyrese Hunter has four steals in each of the Tigers’ past two games, and the Huskies did just turn the ball over 19 times against East Texas A&M. (If you don’t know who that is, the school just changed its name from Texas A&M-Commerce two weeks ago. If you don’t know who Texas A&M-Commerce was, can’t help you there.)

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Alex Karaben should have the edge inside for Connecticut. The Huskies usually end their possessions with a shot, and Karaben has been a force inside. Given how well Memphis rebounds, getting good looks from him will be key.

The Pick

Going against Connecticut is usually a great way to reduce your bankroll. But I can’t help but feel that the Huskies just aren’t prepared well enough for a desperate and talented opponent. Memphis sees Maui as its pathway to March. The Tigers can make it without a huge week here, but getting wins over Colorado and Dayton just wouldn’t pop the way wins over Connecticut, Michigan State and one of Auburn, Iowa State or North Carolina would.

I don’t think Memphis gets that signature win here, but I do think the Tigers make the Huskies sweat. Nine points is too many here.