Memphis vs. Auburn Expert Pick and Prediction – November 27, 2024

MEMPHIS VS. AUBURN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 27, 2024 — It’s safe to say that Memphis has already had an incredibly successful trip to the islands. Given little chance in a bracket that included Connecticut and Michigan State, the Tigers have reached the finals of the Maui Invitational, where they’re up against another brand of Tigers.

And still, Memphis is getting no respect from the oddsmakers. The Tennessee Tigers find themselves nearly a double-digit underdog yet again against Auburn, which looks to stake a claim for the top team in the nation.

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That’s probably not going to happen given that Kansas didn’t lose to Duke, but it probably should. Auburn has the better body of work, as long as it beats Memphis. The Alabama Tigers looked overmatched in the first half against Iowa State, but Auburn stuck with its game plan and eventually came back and weathered the Cyclones in a two-point game. Given that Iowa State turned around and edged Dayton before blowing Colorado’s doors off, that’s looking like a really good win.

The biggest question here is, who’s going to have its way in the interior? The teams make their livings in different manners. Auburn loves to pound away at the inside and go for second-chance points when the high percentage looks don’t fall. Memphis tries to get itself to the line by getting the opponent in foul trouble. And that sets up what could be a high-scoring chess match. Keeping opponents off the line is Auburn’s weakness; keeping opponents off the glass is Memphis’.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, November 27 at 5 p.m.

Where: Lahaina Civic Center, Lahaina, Hawai’i.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Memphis vs. Auburn In-Season Trends

When you load your schedule, and everyone underestimates you, you’re going to end up covering every time you take the court. Memphis has done exactly that, as it has started 6-0 despite only being favored twice all year. The Tigers were favored in home games against Ohio and Missouri, but every other time, they’ve gotten points.

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Auburn’s defense has taken some hits in Maui, but that’s a product of both the increased schedule difficulty and facing teams who don’t mind running. Prior to Maui, the Alabama Tigers had played three lesser opponents and Houston, which never runs if it can avoid it. Iowa State loves to run and North Carolina doesn’t mind, which opened the floodgates for faster games. Memphis is firmly in the “loves to run” category.

The Difference-Makers

Memphis has two choices here: it either outshoots Auburn by getting great looks from the arc — possible, but not likely given Auburn’s solid 3-point defense — or it finds a way to stop Johni Broome. And if it goes the latter route, Dain Dainja must be better inside. In two games in Maui, he has just 21 points and seven rebounds. Great for a single game, not so much for two. He cannot get eaten alive by Broome for Memphis to win.

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Broome is going to get his points and rebounds. He’s likely to be huge on the offensive glass, given that Memphis isn’t great in that area. He could take over the game if the Memphis defense isn’t getting enough bodies on him.

The Pick

This game will be played fast, and that means a lot of possessions. When you have a lot of possessions, you want the team that’s going to end possessions with shots.

That’s Auburn. The Alabama Tigers excel at taking care of the ball and getting second-chance opportunities. Memphis really does not appear to have any kind of answer for Broome, and that’s not going to work. On Day 1, Memphis likely keeps this tight. On Day 3, Auburn probably pulls away to win the tournament.