Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans Expert Pick – December 19, 2023

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES VS. NEW ORLEANS PELICANS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 19, 2023 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After an earlier look at the Spurs v.  Bucks, another game from Tuesday night’s slate features the Memphis Grizzlies (6-19 SU, 9-16 ATS) taking on the New Orleans Pelicans (16-11 SU, 16-10-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, December 19, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET

Where: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

TV: TNT and Bally Sports New Orleans

Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Grizzlies Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 105.6 PPG – 30^th
• Offensive Efficiency: 105.9 points per 100 possessions – 30^th
• Scoring Defense: 112.3 PPG – 11^th
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.8 points per 100 possessions – 9^th

Memphis Grizzlies Continue To Struggle Without Their Star Player In The Rotation

The Memphis Grizzlies are 3-7 in their last 10 outings, and they enter this matchup amid a five-game losing streak. This includes a 116-97 loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Monday night. Ziaire Williams came off the bench and scored a team-high 19 points to go along with seven rebounds and five assists. Desmond Bane added 17 points and five assists.

The Grizzlies have struggled without Ja Morant in the rotation, but he is set to return Tuesday night against the New Orleans Pelicans. Here is what head coach Taylor Jenkins expressed about the team’s star returning to the lineup.

“Health-wise, he’s in great shape physically,” Jenkins said, via ESPN. “Now it’s just a matter of just adjusting to NBA game shape. But knowing how hard he plays; he’s going to be going full steam tomorrow and then a day off and get ready for Thursday’s first home game for him. But I won’t anticipate going crazy with his minutes. But I don’t think it’s any kind of restriction, you know, low minutes or anything like that.”

The Grizzlies shot 35 percent from the field in this contest. Even more important, Memphis is tied for the second-worst record in the Western Conference. With that being said, Morant’s return could not have come at a better time.

Pelicans Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 116.0 PPG – 12^th
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.7 points per 100 possessions – 15^th
• Scoring Defense: 113.8 PPG – 15^th
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.6 points per 100 possessions –11^th

Can The Pelicans Continue Their Hot Streak?

 On the flip side of this matchup, the Pelicans are trending in the opposite direction. They have produced seven wins in their last 10 outings, and they have won each of their last four contests. This includes a 146-110 win over the San Antonio Spurs on Sunday night.

CJ McCollum led New Orleans with 29 points. Brandon Ingram chipped in with 26 points to go along with four assists and three rebounds. New Orleans shot 56.1 percent from the field and 52.4 percent from beyond the arc.

During their best stretch of the season thus far, the Pelicans have won their last four games by an average of 18.8 points per contest. Not only that, but they are also averaging 130.3 points per outing during this four-game stretch.

With that in mind, it appears that New Orleans is primed to continue its success against a slumping Grizzlies squad.

Now, let us take a deep dive into the all-important betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

New Orleans opened as a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to seven. Here are some trends that suggest why taking the home team to cover is the best choice.

• The Grizzlies are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Memphis is just 6-12 ATS in its last 18 matchups against New Orleans.
• In their last eight road games against the Pelicans, the Grizzlies are 1-7 against the spread.
• Memphis is 1-4 ATS in its last five contests against teams in the Southwest Division.
• The Pelicans are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
• New Orleans is a perfect 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games.
• The Pelicans are 16-10-1 ATS, while the Grizzlies are 9-16.
• New Orleans is 10-3 ATS at home and 8-5 as the favorite.

Prediction: New Orleans Pelicans (-7)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 232.5 points. As of right now, the line has moved to 228.5. Let’s discuss why going with the “under” in this matchup is an easy choice.

• The UNDER total has hit nine times in the Grizzlies’ last 13 outings.
• In Memphis’s last 15 December games, the UNDER has hit 10 times.
• The UNDER total has hit for Memphis seven times in its last 10 games that took place on a Tuesday.
• These two ball clubs are averaging 221.6 PPG, which is about 11 points below the projected scoring total for this contest.
• Opponents of both teams are averaging 226.2 PPG, which is 6.3 fewer points than the over/under total for this matchup.

Prediction: UNDER 228.5 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for Memphis is Ja Morant. Despite missing the first 25 games of the season, he currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points

Since Morant has not played this season, here is a look at how some of his 2022-23 numbers compare to his projected scoring total for this matchup.

• During the 2022-23 campaign, Morant averaged 26.2 points per contest.
• In 30 road contests, Morant averaged 25.3 PPG.
• Morant averaged 27.1 PPG in 30 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In 10 games against divisional opponents, Morant averaged 28.5 points per outing.
• In the nine instances in which he played on three days of rest, Morant averaged 30 PPG.
• Lastly, Morant played on a Tuesday seven times last season. During that stretch, he averaged 33.6 PPG.

Based on last season’s splits, going with the “over” for Morant looks like a safe bet.

Prediction: Ja Morant OVER 24.5 points

My key player to watch for the Pelicans is Brandon Ingram. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 25 points.

• On the season, Ingram is averaging 23.1 points per contest.
• In 11 home games, he is averaging 21.9 PPG.
• Ingram is averaging 22.5 PPG against divisional opponents.
• Ingram has played 18 games against Western Conference opponents. He is averaging 23.7 PPG in those contests.
• In eight December outings, Ingram is averaging 21.3 PPG, which is slightly below his projected scoring total in this matchup.

Based on the above trends, taking the “over” for Ingram is the wise choice here.

Prediction: Brandon Ingram OVER 21.5 points