Maryland vs. Penn State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 30, 2024

MARYLAND VS. PENN STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 30, 2024 — Does Penn State want the opportunity to go to Indianapolis? The Nittany Lions would be in prime position if Ohio State were to fall short against Michigan, as they have a higher strength of schedule than Indiana.

But do the Nittany Lions even want it? If they beat Maryland and don’t make the Big Ten title game, they get a week off and would surely get a home game in the first round of the playoff. If they find their way into the conference title game, they’d have to go through undefeated Oregon, and a loss would likely send them on the road instead of getting to play in Happy Valley.

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That, of course, assumes that they beat Maryland. And for the most part, that has been a very safe assumption. Even the coaches and the Big Ten don’t pretend this is a rivalry: Penn State wasn’t assigned a primary rival by the league, and Maryland coach Mike Locksley admits that he and James Franklin are friends and there’s no rivalry between them. The stats back that up: the Terrapins are 3-43 all-time against the Nittany Lions.

And outside of the COVID year, where Penn State never adjusted, this has been even more one-way traffic than usual. Not counting the COVID game, the past six meetings have been Nittany Lions 275, Terrapins 35. With the Nittany Lions averaging almost 46 points a game on Maryland, one has to wonder what would happen if Franklin DIDN’T consider Locksley a friend.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 30 at Noon

Where: Beaver Stadium, University Park, Pa. 

TV: BTN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Maryland vs. Penn State In-Season Trends

Over the past eight years, this has been one-way traffic. Over the whole history of the series, it has mostly been one-way traffic. The Nittany Lions have covered seven of the past eight against the Terrapins, and most of them haven’t been close at all.

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However, the Nittany Lions haven’t exactly been great at covering the spread in Big Ten play. They’re just 3-5 ATS in the conference this year, and they’ve been really inconsistent with the numbers this year. Usually, Penn State has had no problem covering against the bad teams, but that has looked a lot harder for them this season. Meanwhile, if not for a one-point escape over USC, Maryland would be looking at 0-9 in the league.

Weather

It’s going to be 27 degrees and windy for this game, which isn’t going to be enjoyable for anybody.

The Difference-Makers

With 92 catches and almost 1,100 yards receiving, Tai Felton can hit the big play for Maryland. Otherwise, the Terrapins really don’t have a ton of weapons that can hurt their foes.

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Kaytron Allen hasn’t been quite as outstanding as he was a couple seasons ago. But he’s still a solid back, and Penn State will likely be running the ball a lot as things get out of hand.

The Pick

Penn State shouldn’t get scratched here. Maryland is terrible and has nothing to play for, and the Terrapins usually get destroyed in this game anyway. The Nittany Lions really would rather not make the Big Ten championship game, but if Ohio State can’t beat Michigan, they’ll have no choice.

Losing the Big Ten title game to Oregon wouldn’t be ideal, but wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. Losing to Maryland would be catastrophic. It’s probably not going to happen.