Maryland vs. Illinois Expert Pick and Prediction – January 23, 2025

MARYLAND VS. ILLINOIS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 23, 2025 — Could this be the trip Maryland has been waiting for? The Terrapins would currently be squarely on the bubble if the season ended today, in large part because they’re approaching dreaded home-court hero status.

Maryland has been strong when playing in College Park, although the Terps haven’t played anyone outside Ohio State and UCLA at home. But once they go on the road, they’ve been turtle soup. In four road games, Maryland is 0-4 because it can’t defend well enough to matter. The Terrapins have allowed no less than 76 points in a road game this year, and they’ve even managed to lose to Washington, which doesn’t have another Big Ten victory.

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Illinois is having trouble finding its consistency. The Fighting Illini have two defeats in three games, losing at home to USC and falling by a basket at Michigan State. Over the past six games, Illinois has alternated between dynamite and decent. The decent version of the Illini went just 1-2, surviving Washington and taking the aforementioned defeats. Dynamite Illinois has been otherworldly, pounding Oregon, Penn State and Indiana into chalk dust by an average of 32 points.

The pattern suggests that dynamite Illinois is the version that shows up tonight, which squares with Maryland’s road issues. But the Terrapins have always played well in Champaign, which adds hesitation to this pick.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Thursday, January 23 at 9 p.m.

Where: State Farm Arena, Champaign, Ill.

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Maryland vs. Illinois In-Season Trends

Think Illinois wishes it hadn’t let Maryland into the Big Ten? The Terrapins have actually enjoyed their visits to Champaign, beating the Illini straight up in four of their past five trips. In three of those visits, Maryland was catching points and still emerged victorious. Overall, the Terrapins have won seven of 10 against Illinois.

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This is going to be a tough total to reach, but that’s life when Illinois is involved. Even though their past eight games have all been set at 150.5 or higher, the over has cashed six times in Illinois’ past eight games. That tracks with Maryland’s road issues; the Terrapins have played over in three of their four defeats and four of five games overall.

The Difference-Makers

Illinois is frightening on the boards, and the way the Illini play defense is brilliant because they almost force you to beat them with two-pointers. The Illini do allow far too many shots, but they defend the 3 so well and don’t send teams to the line so effectively that you almost have to work the ball inside to take advantage of their relative weak point. That plays into their rebounding edge, which is why Julian Reese will be so important to Maryland. Something like his 16-10 night against UCLA would be ideal, but the Terps will be happy as long as Reese gets close to double digits on the glass.

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If Kasparas Jakucionis can get going, Illinois could put this away early. Maryland’s biggest defensive weakness is 3-point shooting, but that’s also Illinois’ biggest offensive weakness. Getting some key shots early would let the Illini dominate.

The Pick

It’s really hard to make this pick with where the line is. Maryland’s road performances haven’t been poor, but the Terrapins have been far from their best away from home. Illinois has been so much better at home and has that extra gear that it seems to reach every other game.

I don’t feel great about this selection, because if dynamite Illinois doesn’t show up, Maryland’s going to keep this close and might even win. The much safer choice is to play the over, as Maryland’s defense doesn’t travel. But if I have to take a team in this, I’m going to go with the Illini.