Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur Pick and Prediction – May 14, 2024

MANCHESTER CITY VS. TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – May 14, 2024 — And the scenario that Tottenham Hotspur fans feared has arrived in North London: a match where they don’t really want their team to win, but have to pull for them anyway.

Aston Villa’s draw with Liverpool on Monday means fourth place is still possible for Spurs, but only if they win both their final two games and Villa loses to Crystal Palace on the final day. Tottenham could technically finish fourth if Villa draw and Spurs thrash Sheffield United by at least seven on the final day — not entirely impossible, given the 101 goals Sheffield has conceded — but more likely, Spurs need two wins and a Villa defeat to qualify for the Champions League.

Related: Liverpool vs. Aston Villa Prediction

But qualifying for the Champions League would come at a price for Spurs. Beating Manchester City would open the door for bitter North London rival Arsenal to claim the Premier League title. The Gunners haven’t won the crown since 2003, and a City defeat would put Arsenal in total control of its destiny on the final day. Spurs have never won the Premier League, and the thought of handing Arsenal the title has the Tottenham fan base secretly — or not so secretly — hoping for their own defeat.

However, Spurs’ players and coaches won’t care. They need a win, and they’ve proven a thorn in Manchester City’s side when the Sky Blues have come to North London. Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has been City’s personal house of horrors, as they have never scored a goal in the building outside of cup competition. Spurs opened the new stadium in April 2019, and since then, City have made four Premier League visits and a Champions League trip and lost all of them.

Something has to give here. City brings a 33-match unbeaten streak into North London this time, and only victory will keep the Sky Blues on pace to win the title. Can Pep Guardiola’s side finally figure this trip out?

Kickoff

Teams: Manchester City (26-3-7, 85 points) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (19-11-6, 63 points)

When: Tuesday, May 14 at 3 p.m. EST

Where: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, London

TV: USA

Spread: Manchester City -1.5/Spurs +1.5

Moneyline: City -265/Spurs +600/Draw +360

Totals: Over 3.5 (-120)/Under 3.5 (+100)

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of May 13th, 2024 

Scouting Manchester City

When a player like Phil Foden can get overlooked, it speaks to how good a scorer Erling Haaland is. Haaland seems to enjoy playing with people as talented as himself, as he plays his best in a City shirt. He’s scored 25 goals on the season in the Premier League, and when he’s at his best, there’s no stopping him.

Foden’s also a top talent, scoring 17 goals and adding eight assists on the campaign. That one-two punch has more goals by themselves than both Sheffield United and Nottingham Forest, which speaks to just how dominant City’s attack can be. This team hasn’t taken points in 33 straight matches for nothing.

Scouting Tottenham Hotspur

With Richarlison out and Harry Kane in Munich, much of the scoring responsibility has fallen to Son Heung-Min. Tottenham’s fine with that part of the equation, as the Korean has 17 goals, but the lack of a second scoring option has hurt at times. Micky van de Ven seems to be getting closer to being that, as he’s scored in two of Spurs’ past five matches at home.

Spurs’ big problem has been its defense. Among the top 10, only Chelsea and West Ham have conceded more frequently. The last time a Premier League match at Tottenham didn’t end with both teams scoring was October 23, 2023, when Spurs blanked Fulham 2-0. Since then, 14 EPL matches have been played at Tottenham, and they’ve all seen both sides find the mesh.

Best Bets

Over 3.5 Goals (-150): This is a lot of juice to pay for an over. But these teams played out a 3-3 draw at the Etihad earlier this year, and Spurs can’t stop anyone. Let’s put it this way: if City doesn’t find the mesh in this game, it’s safe to assume they’re never going to do it at Tottenham in an EPL match. Nothing but the Sky Blues’ wretched history here suggests anything other than lots of goals.

Manchester City and BTTS (-105): As much as it pains me to go against history, Spurs are in wretched form. They’ve won just twice in the past two months, and the wins weren’t impressive. Spurs’ victories came against Burnley, who won’t be back next year, and Nottingham Forest, who will just barely survive. City should roll here, although Spurs should find a marker.

Manchester City 3-1 (+800): Spurs are a step up from Fulham and Wolverhampton, but not a big step up. City won those matches by 4-0 and 5-1, and it remains in top form.

There’s also one other thing to consider: Tottenham’s style is not the one that has frustrated City here for four years. Spurs play more open now, which gives City a big edge.