LSU vs. Missouri Expert Pick and Prediction – October 7, 2023

LSU VS. MISSOURI EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 7, 2023 — In the time it took you to read this sentence, Mississippi scored again. OK, maybe not, but it certainly felt like LSU’s defense was that helpless against the Rebels last week. The Bayou Bengals couldn’t stop anything that Mississippi tried, giving up 706 yards of offense and 55 points, wasting a great effort from the offense.

And that’s been the biggest problem for LSU: The Tigers own the second-best offense in the SEC at 44 points per game, but only Vanderbilt has surrendered more points per game on defense. LSU’s been so inept on that side of the ball that it hasn’t held anyone under 10 points, and that’s with a schedule that included Grambling.

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That could be problematic here, because Missouri’s offense has improved each week. These Tigers don’t really play defense all that well either, having given up 19 points or more to every FBS opponent they’ve faced. Missouri’s also had a tendency to play tight games, as three of its four home wins have come by seven points or less.

That’s why Missouri’s getting points at home here: people still don’t think this team’s for real. If the Tigers can slow down LSU, they’ll earn a lot of respect and announce themselves as an SEC East contender.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 7th at Noon EDT

Where: Faurot Field, Columbia, Mo.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: 63% on Missouri

Public Money: 77% on Missouri

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 5th, 2023.

LSU vs. Missouri In-Season Trends

Betting on LSU to score early and often has proven a sensible play for almost a year now. The Bayou Bengals have played to the over in 12 of their past 13 games, dating to last season. Only a 13-10 game with Arkansas last season stayed under the number, as LSU games have become shootouts under Brian Kelly.

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Points have also come pretty regularly for Missouri, who has played to the over in seven of its past nine. This is only the third-ever SEC meeting between the teams, so there’s not enough data to create a trend. But in both meetings, LSU’s hit 40 points, while Missouri did the same in the 2020 matchup in Columbia.

Weather

This will be an ideal day for football. Temperatures will sit at 61 degrees with moderate winds of 10 miles per hour, so weather shouldn’t affect things.

The Difference-Makers

Brady Cook has had an excellent junior season to this point, tossing for 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. It is worrisome what he might do against a good defense, as the best opponent he’s seen all season is Kansas State. But LSU hasn’t shown any ability to stop anyone, and Cook seems to excel at making reads and taking what’s available.

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On the other side, Jayden Daniels should be able to hit the deep ball a few times. Missouri’s big defensive weakness is the deep ball, as the Tigers have allowed 76.3% of their yardage through the air. Given what Daniels did last week, this could be another day of big numbers.

The Pick

To me, the best bet feels like the over. Missouri’s defense hasn’t shown it can stop anyone either, and other than Kansas State, LSU is far superior to anyone the Tigers have faced to this point. Even the Wildcats don’t have the powerful offense that the Bayou Bengals have at their disposal.

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If the line sat where it was at the opener, Missouri would have made a tempting play. But the value seems to be gone on the home team at this point. Plus, Brian Kelly doesn’t lose two in a row very often. The last time it happened in the regular season was 2016, when he was at Notre Dame. This line’s small enough not to mess with a Missouri cover.