Louisville vs. Washington Expert Pick and Prediction – December 31, 2024

LOUISVILLE VS. WASHINGTON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 31, 2024 — Louisville has to be kicking itself for some of its early losses. The Cardinals shot themselves in the foot at Notre Dame with three turnovers. Their defense couldn’t hold up against Miami, and they couldn’t get the offense going in the fourth quarter against SMU.

All of those losses were excusable, and winning two of those games likely would have gotten Louisville close to the playoff. However, the Cardinals also did find a way to blow a two-touchdown lead to Stanford with Stanford down to a backup quarterback.

Related: The Return of Rich Rodriguez

And that’s why Louisville instead ends its season in west Texas against Washington. The Huskies found life rough in the Big Ten Plus Eight, going from national runner-up last year to 11th in the league. Washington didn’t have a single player make anything higher than honorable mention in the Big Ten, which shows how far the Huskies have fallen from last year.

That was always expected this season, but it does put them in a tight spot to end this season. The one saving grace was Louisville getting hit by opt-outs, while Washington was mostly spared. But with Miller Moss coming to Louisville next year from USC, new quarterback Harrison Bailey views this as his one and only shot to try to win the job before his competition arrives.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Tuesday, December 31 at 2 p.m.

Where: Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Louisville vs. Washington In-Season Trends

November was almost a perfect month for Louisville, as the Cardinals bumped off Clemson and Pittsburgh and went 3-1 ATS. Of course, they also lost that game to Stanford, which ruined what was otherwise a strong finish. The offense has not been the problem for Louisville in the second half of the season; the Cardinals have not scored less than 30 points.

Related: Why Ohio State Should Fire Ryan Day

Washington has matched spread result to game result 11 times in 12 games this year. The lone exception was Eastern Michigan, a game the Huskies won by 21 while giving 24.5. Otherwise, Washington has been pegged accurately as a team with a weak offense and an inconsistent defense.

Weather

The Sun Bowl is going to live up to its name. Temperatures will hit 71 degrees with plenty of sun. This is actually close to an all-time record high for El Paso on Dec. 31, so these teams lucked out.

The Difference-Makers

Isaac Brown will get most of the work for Louisville. He was one of the top freshman running backs in the nation, and if he and Bailey can form a strong partnership, it would go a long way toward setting up the Cardinals for next season.

Related: Mack Brown’s Firing

Washington will also try to make things happen on the ground. Jonah Coleman was the main bright spot of the Huskies’ attack, and his running ability will be key if Washington is going to keep up.

The Pick

If Louisville was at full strength, this really wouldn’t be expected to be close. You can’t really say for sure that it wouldn’t be close because of the Cardinals’ pratfall with Stanford, but Louisville would be a heavy favorite at full strength.

Related: Defense of James Franklin

This version of the Cardinals isn’t there, but it should still be able to handle this task. Washington’s offense wasn’t good and didn’t get better over the past three weeks. Louisville should handle the job.