Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – August 27, 2023

LOS ANGELES SPARKS VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – AUGUST 27, 2023 – Happy Sunday basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on today’s slate features the Los Angeles Sparks (15-18) taking on the Connecticut Sun (23-11). 

The Sun are slated in the No. 3 spot and the Sparks are currently tied with the Washington Mystics for the No. 7 spot. As we near the end of the season, it is plausible that both teams could move up in the standings. So, without further delay, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why. 

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, August 27, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: CBS Sports Network and NBCS-BOS

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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LOS ANGELES SPARKS VS CONNECTICUT SUN – SEASON TRENDS

The Sparks Are Hot & Playing With A Lot Of Confidence

Three weeks ago, the Sparks were defeated by the Washington Mystics 79-77.

That loss dropped them to 9-18 on the season. At that point, the team’s playoff hopes were on life support. Since that time, though, the Sparks have rattled off six consecutive victories, putting them right back in the thick of the playoff race.

In the Sparks’ most recent outing, they erased a 16-point deficit and rallied to knock off the Atlanta Dream 83-78. Nneka Ogwumike paced the Sparks with 29 points and 12 rebounds. It was her 100th career double-double, and Los Angeles will need another solid performance to extend their winning streak. 

Although Los Angeles ranks 10th and 8th in scoring and efficiency, the team is ranked second in points allowed (80.3 PPG) and they have the fourth-best defensive rating, allowing 101.8 points per 100 possessions. And during their season-high six-game winning streak, the Sparks have limited their opponents to just 74.8 points per outing. With that in mind, a low-scoring game could be beneficial for this team that is brimming with confidence right now. 

Connecticut Sun Hoping To Right The Ship In Time For The Playoffs

Meanwhile, the Sun have hit a bit of a road bump as of late. They have dropped four of their last six games. This includes a 95-90 overtime loss to the New York Liberty on Thursday – a game in which they led by 14 points at the break.

That defeat dropped the Sun 3.5 games behind the Liberty in the standings with just six games left to play. DeWanna Bonner scored a game-high 30 points to go along with 12 rebounds. Alyssa Thomas finished with 22 points, 12 boards, and three steals. She broke the WNBA record for double-doubles in a season with her 24th. 

The Sun have the fourth-best offense in the association. Not only that, but they are ranked first in points allowed (79.1 PPG), and they have the second-best defensive rating (100.6 points per 100 possessions). Based on the numbers, this contest has the makings of a low-scoring affair.

The Picks

The Spread

The Connecticut Sun are favored to win by six points. Over the past two seasons, Connecticut is a perfect 7-0 against Los Angeles. So, of course, I expect them to win, but here is a look at why I think they will cover the spread as well. 

• Connecticut is 7-0-1 ATS the last eight times they played on two days of rest.
• In the last eight games the Sun have played on a Sunday, they are 6-2 ATS.
• Los Angeles is just 1-6 ATS the last seven times these teams played in Connecticut.
• The Sparks are 8-20 ATS in the last 28 meetings between these two ball clubs.

Prediction: Connecticut Sun (-6)

Over/Under

The o/u total for this contest is 156.5 points. Although this point total is somewhat conservative, here is why I’m going with the UNDER.

• The UNDER total is 8-3 for Los Angeles in its last 11 contests overall. 
• The UNDER total has hit seven times in the Sparks’ last 10 games following an ATS win. 
• In the last 14 contests between these teams, the UNDER has prevailed 11 times.
• The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six times these teams have clashed in Connecticut. 

Prediction: Under 156.5 points

Player Prop Bet

There was no PPB data available at the time of this writing. However, my key player to watch in this contest is Los Angeles Sparks forward Nneka Ogwumike. She leads the team in scoring with 19.6 points per game, and she’s coming off a solid outing against the Dream (29 points and 12 rebounds). 

If the projected scoring total is 19 points or less go with the over. Conversely, if her projected scoring total is 20 or more, go with the under as she is averaging 18.5 points per contest over her last 10 outings.