Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns Expert Pick – February 25, 2024

LOS ANGELES LAKERS VS. PHOENIX SUNS EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 25, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the Los Angeles Lakers (32-27 SU, 27-32 ATS) taking on the Phoenix Suns (32-26 SU, 30-25-3 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, February 25, 2024

Time: 3:30 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center

Location: Phoenix, AZ

TV: ABC

Related: Kings vs.  Clippers Expert Pick

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Phoenix Suns — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Lakers Take Four Of Five From Their Division Rivals?

 Los Angeles Lakers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.0 PPG – 13^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.0 points per 100 possessions – 18^TH
• Scoring Defense: 117.3 PPG – 19^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.4 points per 100 possessions – 14^TH

The Lakers are currently in the No. 9 spot in the conference playoff race. On the positive side, the team has produced seven wins across its last 10 outings.

This includes a 123-118 over the San Antonio Spurs on Friday night. LeBron James – who missed the team’s 128-110 loss against the Golden State Warriors the night before – scored a team-high 30 points, handed out nine assists, and collected seven rebounds.

Anthony Davis was no slouch in this contest, either. He finished with 28 points (on 10-for-14 shooting) and 13 rebounds, while D’Angelo Russell contributed 22 points and six assists.

These division rivals have played each other four times this season (including the In-Season Tournament), with the Lakers winning three of those meetings. With potential playoff implications on the line, it will be interesting to see which team will emerge victorious in the fifth and final meeting of the season.

Can The Suns Snap Their Two-Game Slide?

 Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.4 PPG – 12^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 118.3 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 114.5 PPG – 15^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.4 points per 100 possessions – 15^TH

Meanwhile, the Suns are in the No. 8 spot and lead the Lakers by 2.5 games in the standings. The good news is they have won six times in their last 10 games.

The bad news is they come into this matchup amid a two-game losing streak. This includes a 114-110 loss against the Houston Rockets on Friday night. Kevin Durant paced the Suns’ offense with 28 points, 11 boards, and eight dimes. KD also moved into ninth place on the NBA’s all-time scoring list.

Devin Booker added 25 points and five rebounds. However, he shot 7-for-24 from the field and missed on all four of his attempts from beyond the arc. Grayson Allen contributed 15 points, six rebounds, and six assists.

After the Lakers took the first three contests between these teams, Phoenix finally broke into the win column with a 127-109 victory on January 11. Bradley Beal was instrumental in that win as he torched the Lakers defense for 37 points on 14-for-21 shooting from the floor and he knocked down eight of his 10 attempts from 3-point range.

Beal has missed the team’s last two games with a hamstring injury. But if he can suit up for this contest, the Suns have to like their chances of coming out on top.

Now that we have set the table for this Pacific Division showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Suns opened as a consensus four-point favorite. As of right now, the line has not changed. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Lakers are 5-10 ATS in their last 15 matchups against Phoenix.
• Los Angeles is 4-8 ATS in the last 12 times it has played on a Sunday.
• The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests against Pacific Division teams.
• In the last seven times Phoenix has played on a Sunday, the team is 1-5-1 against the spread.

This is a tough one to call considering that neither team has played very well against the spread this season. But being that the Suns have covered the spread 10 times in the last 15 head-to-head matchups, going with the home team looks like the smart play here.

Prediction: Phoenix Suns (-4)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 237.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The Lakers and Suns average a combined 234.4 per contest. That is three points fewer than the projected total for this matchup.
• From a defensive standpoint, the teams give up a combined 231.8 points per game, which is nearly six points less than the projected points total for this matchup.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Suns’ last five contests.
• The UNDER total is 6-2 in Phoenix’s last eight matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In the Suns’ last seven February games, the UNDER total hit five times.

Prediction: UNDER 237.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Since LeBron James and Anthony Davis are listed on the team’s injury report for this matchup, the key player to watch for the road team is D’Angelo Russell. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 17.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total.

• During the season, Russell is averaging 17.5 points per outing.
• In 27 road contests this season, he is averaging 16.8 PPG.
• Russell has played against Western Conference teams 35 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 18.2 points per outing.
• In 11 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Russell averages 19.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Russell is averaging 19.4 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Russell is the smart choice here.

Prediction: D’Angelo Russell OVER 17.5 points

My key player to watch for the home team is Kevin Durant. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 29.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Durant is averaging 28.1 points per outing.
• In 24 home contests, he is averaging 28.9 PPG.
• Durant has played against Western Conference teams 31 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.9 points per outing.
• In 11 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Durant is averaging 28.5 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Durant has averaged 27.3 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup just three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Kevin Durant UNDER 29.5 points