Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Expert Pick – March 4, 2024

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS.  MILWAUKEE BUCKS EXPERT PICK – MARCH 4, 2024 – Happy Monday, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games from tonight’s slate features the Los Angeles Clippers (39-20 SU, 31-28 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (40-21 SU, 30-30-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Monday, March 4, 2024

Time: 8:00 PM ET

Where: Fiserv Forum

Location: Milwaukee, Wisconsin

TV: NBA TV, WMLW, and BSSC

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Milwaukee Bucks — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Clippers Slow Down The Surging Bucks?

 Los Angeles Clippers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 117.4 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.8 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH
• Scoring Defense: 112.5 PPG – 9^TH                  
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.9 points per 100 possessions – 12^TH

The Los Angeles Clippers have played at the .500 mark across their last 10 decisions. However, they do have the fourth-best record in the Western Conference. Not only that, but they come into this matchup riding a two-game winning streak.

This includes a 140-115 victory against the Washington Wizards and an 89-88 win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday. Kawhi Leonard set the tone for the Clippers’ offense, as he scored a team-high 32 points, five rebounds, and two steals.

Norman Powell added 24 points and three rebounds off the bench. Paul George finished with 15 points, but he shot just 5-for-16 from the field and 3-for-11 from beyond the arc.

The Clippers shot a season-low 37.6 percent from the field. However, they still managed to overcome a 16-point deficit en route to a one-point win.

“We got some good shots, we just couldn’t make them,” Los Angeles coach Tyronn Lue said via CBS Sports. “That’s part of the game, but I loved the way we stayed resilient, I loved the way we kept playing defense. We kept competing and guarding. No transition points (Sunday), which was good.”

Los Angeles did limit Minnesota to 38.8 percent shooting from the floor and 27.3 percent from 3-point range. That same defensive tenacity will be needed against a Bucks team that has been hot lately.

Can The Bucks Push Their Winning Streak To Six Games?

 Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 121.5 PPG – 2^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.9 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 117.1 PPG – 18^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.5 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks had dropped seven of their first 10 games under new head coach Doc Rivers. Fortunately, the team has played much better over the past couple of weeks.

The Bucks have posted wins in each of their last five contests, allowing them to climb back to the No. 2 spot in the conference playoff race. In the team’s recent 113-97 win over the Chicago Bulls on Friday night, Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 46 points, 16 points, and six assists. Antetokounmpo surpassed Sidney Moncrief as the winningest player in franchise history with 489 victories.

It’s fun. It’s something that I can tell my kids,” Antetokounmpo said. “I have been blessed with incredible teammates and an incredible coaching staff that allow me to do what I do. … Right now, we’re trusting each other. We’re rolling, we’re feeling good.”

After struggling on the defensive end of the court for a good chunk of the season, the Bucks have held each of their last five opponents below the century mark. Despite the team’s recent success, the head coach knows there is still room for improvement.

“We’re winning games, but for us, it’s not about right now,” Doc Rivers said via ESPN. “Our whole key is getting ready. That’s the first thing I told them. We still have work to do, we’re still pushing, we have got to get better. It’s nicer to get wins than to lose, but we’re not where we want to be yet.”

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at some of the noteworthy betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Bucks opened as a consensus five-point favorite. That line has moved to 5.5 points for the home team (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 outings.
• Los Angeles is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 matchups against Eastern Conference teams.
• In their last six games against Central Division opponents, the Clippers are 2-4 against the spread.
• The Bucks are 5-0 ATS in their last five contests.
• Milwaukee is just 1-6 ATS in their last seven Monday games.
• In the last five times in which they have played as the favorite, the Bucks are 4-1 against the spread.

Although the Bucks are on a hot streak, I am going with the Clippers to cover the spread in this one.

Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers (+5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 229 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 226 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Clippers’ last five games.
• The UNDER total is 5-0 in the Bucks’ last five contests.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in Milwaukee’s last five outings.
• The UNDER total has prevailed seven times in the Bucks’ last nine matchups against Western Conference teams.

Prediction: UNDER 226 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is Paul George. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points.

Let’s look to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 26 games against the Bucks, PG-13 is averaging 17.2 points per contest.
• On the season, George is averaging 22 points across 54 outings.
• In 26 home contests, he is averaging 22.5 PPG.
• George has played against Western Conference teams 18 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 21.1 points per outing.
• In four matchups against Central Division opponents, George is averaging 22.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, George has averaged 18 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Paul George OVER 19.5 points

My key player for the home team is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 31.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 31.5 points.

Let’s take a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 19 career games against the Clippers, Giannis is averaging 24.6 points per contest.
• On the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 30 points per game across 59 outings.
• In 31 home contests, he is averaging 28.9 PPG.
• Antetokounmpo has played against Western Conference teams 19 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 32.1 points per outing.
• Giannis has played on Monday nights 11 times this season. In those contests, he has averaged 32.8 PPG.
• In three matchups against Pacific Division opponents, he is averaging 31.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Antetokounmpo has averaged 28.3 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 points