Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Expert Pick And Predictions – April 28, 2024

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS VS. DALLAS MAVERICKS GAME 4 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS – APRIL 28, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Los Angeles Clippers (52-33 SU, 39-46-1 ATS) taking on the Dallas Mavericks (52-33 SU, 50-35 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this Game 4 matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, April 28, 2024 @ 3:30 PM ET

Where: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

TV: ABC

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks – How We Got Here & Betting Trends

Can The Mavericks’ Solid Defensive Effort Continue?

After dropping the series opener 109-97, the Mavericks have stormed back to take a 2-1 lead in their first-round series against the Los Angeles Clippers. In the teams’ 101-90 win on Friday night, Luka Doncic—the NBA’s leading scorer during the regular season (33.9 PPG) — did not have a great shooting night (7-for-25 overall and 3-for-14 from distance), but he did finish with 22 points, 10 boards, and nine dimes.

Kyrie Irving added 21 points (including 19 in the second half) and six assists. Derrick Jones Jr. and P.J. Washington contributed 11 and 10 points, respectively.  The Mavericks ranked 20th in scoring defense during the regular season, allowing 115.6 points per contest.  This marked the third consecutive time they have held the Clippers under their 115.6 PPG scoring average. Additionally, it was the second game  Dallas held Los Angeles under 100 points.

Can the Mavericks continue to excel at that end of the court? If so, they should claim their their straight victory of this series heading back to Los Angeles.

Can The Clippers Avoid a 1-3 Deficit?

Meanwhile, the Clippers appear to be searching for answers after their latest setback in this series. James Harden scored a team-high 21 points to go along with five assists. Normal  Powell also scored 21 points off the bench. The pair combined to shoot an efficient 9-for-14 from beyond the arc. Unfortunately,  the rest of the team shot 1-for-15 from the 3-point line.

Paul George was limited to just seven points on 3-for-11 shooting, and he missed six of his seven attempts from distance. Furthermore, Kawhi Leonard — who averaged 23.7 PPG during the regular season — contributed only nine points on seven shot attempts. Leonard has been dealing with knee inflammation and his status is up in the air for Game 4.

“Just being smart, making sure we’re doing right by Kawhi, seeing how he feels,” Clippers coach Tyronn Lue said after the game. “He’s still trying to find his rhythm. We’ve got to make sure we help him do that.”

Can the Clippers bounce back if Leonard is not 100 percent, or will they go back home facing a 1-3 deficit?

Now that we have set the stage for this Game 4 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Mavericks opened as a consensus six-point favorite, but the line has recently moved to 5.5 points for the home team (per OddShark). Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last six outings.
• Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Western Conference opponents.
• In their last eight matchups against teams in the Southwest Division, the Clippers are 1-7 against the spread.
• The Mavericks have covered the spread at a 75 percent success rate in their last 20 contests (15-5).
• Dallas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games against Pacific Division opponents.
• In their last 19 games against Western Conference teams, the Mavericks are impressively 15-4 against the spread.

The Mavericks are 14-8 against the spread in the 22 times they were installed as the favorite to win by six or more points. Conversely, the Clippers are 2-4 ATS when they have played as a six-point underdog or more.

Dallas has accumulated 37 victories in the 50 times it was listed as the favorite this season. On the other hand, Los Angeles has produced just five wins in the 18 times it was listed as the underdog.

Prediction: Dallas Mavericks (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 212 points (per Pre-Game.com). At the time of this writing, the line has moved 209 points (via DraftKings). Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER all five times in the Clippers’s last five games.
• The UNDER total is 4-1 in Los Angeles’s last five road games.
• In the Clippers’ last six road contests against Dallas, the UNDER total prevailed five times.
• The total has gone UNDER all six times in the Mavericks’ last six home outings.
• In Dallas’s last five games against Los Angeles, the UNDER total cashed in all five times.
• The UNDER total is 8-1 in the Mavericks’ last nine home contests.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in Dallas’s last six home matchups against the Clippers.

Prediction: UNDER 209 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Los Angeles Clippers guard James Harden. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the regular season and playoffs, Harden is averaging 16.8 PPG across 75 appearances.
• In six games against the Mavericks this season, he is averaging 18.3 points per contest.
• During the postseason, the Sixers guard is averaging 23.7 PPG.
• Harden has played against Western Conference teams 47 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 16.7 points per outing.
• In 17 matchups against Southwest Division opponents, Harden is averaging 15.6 points per game.
• Over his last five outings, Harden has averaged 19.4 points and 6.2 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: James Harden OVER 18.5 points