Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Expert Pick

After a heartbreaking 20-17 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to face the Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams need a win as the Raiders blew a 10-point first-quarter lead in their 34-18 loss to the Denver Broncos and fell to last place in the AFC West. The Steelers at 3-2 are still tied atop the AFC North with their rival the Baltimore Ravens and need to keep pace with a victory today. Read more Las Vegas Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers expert pick. 

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Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 13th at 4:25 PM ET

Where: Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, NV

TV: CBS

The Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

THERE’S NO PLACE LIKE “HOME”

While these two franchises have a storied history going back to the 1970’s and the Immaculate Reception, it’s the modern day Raiders that have given coach Mike Tomlin nightmares. In a strange scheduling quirk this will be the fourth year in a row that they face each other with the Steelers winning the last two contests. Tomlin has faced them nine times in his career, mostly when they were bottom feeders, and is 4-5 against the Silver and Black suffering a handful of upset losses.

One major benefit the Steelers bring to this road game is a home-field advantage. Last year in the Steelers 23-18 win at Allegiant Stadium the away fans, and their Terrible Towels, were so loud it forced the Raiders to use a silent count at home. According to Vivid Seats’ Fan Projection, a secondary ticket marketplace, up to 56% of the fans could be rooting for Pittsburgh. It’s also the hottest ticket on the market selling for an average of $602 per ticket. 

The away fans will be motivated to be extra loud today as Aidan O’Connell gets his first start of the season after replacing Gardner Minshew at halftime in last week’s loss to the Broncos. O’Connell faced a similar situation last year when he took over as the team’s starter in Week 9 of his rookie season, throwing for eight touchdowns without an interception in the last four games of the season.

“I definitely know that the job is fluid, so just trying to do my best every day,” O’Connell said Wednesday. “Today, I’m focusing on today, and not really thinking about any days in the future. I got to work on what we’re working on today, try to get better, and take each day that way.”

The quarterback room for Pittsburgh gets a boost as Russell Wilson is back from his calf injury and has been elevated to the back-up role with Justin Fields getting his sixth start of the season. If Fields struggles and/or the Steelers lose this week be prepared for the classic quarterback controversy which has circled over this franchise since Ben Roethlisberger retired in 2022.

With injuries to linebackers Nick Herbig and Alex Highsmith, the Steelers are going to need Jeremiah Moon and Isaiahh Loudermilk to help T.J. Watt set the edge and bring pressure to the quarterback that was sacked twice last week in the second half. The Steelers have used a heavy rotation of edge rushers to keep Watt fresh, which hasn’t gone unnoticed by Raiders coach Antonio Pierce.

“T.J. is a very, very intriguing player when you watch him because he can drop, doesn’t play every snap like Maxx [Crosby], but he’s very effective,” Pierce said. “For some reason, when the game is on the line on third down or in the red zone, man you better know where 90 is. Hopefully we’ve got enough hands and eyes on him at all times.”

Expect Las Vegas to monitor Watt’s rotations and look to throw more when he’s out of the game.

DRAMA WATCH

While the Raiders have plenty of drama with the quarterback change and All-Pro receiver Davante Adams on the trade block, the Steelers have several issues they need to resolve internally. Last week against the Cowboys, receiver George Pickens only played in 40% of the offensive snaps which is half his normal playing time.

Having a disgruntled receiver is nothing new for Tomlin but it’s the last thing the team needs as it struggles with wide receiver depth. The speculation is that Pickens wasn’t happy about the trade rumors which were more of a social media creation than reality. 

The Pick

The return of Jaylen Warren will boost the backfield for the Steelers and give Najee Harris much needed help. The Raiders have one of the worst rush defenses, giving up 132 yards per game. There is pressure on Pittsburgh to at least attempt to open this offense – and this could be the week to get that done.

But this is exactly what we were expecting last week against an injury depleted Cowboys team and the offense only scored 17 points. This is going to be like the game against the Cowboys last week, frustrating and close. I just don’t think Aidan O’Connell will be able to lead the team to a last second victory as Dak Prescott did last week. Take the Steelers here to escape with a narrow 22-18 victory.