Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs: Picks and Preview

Sunday Stinker

As I write this on Sunday night, I’m 2-6 for the NFL’s Week 5 extravaganza. I’m still fuming over the worst roughing the passer call I’ve ever seen in the Atlanta/Tampa game. The Panthers laid an absolute egg that cost me two picks. The first Baker Mayfield stat line I saw read: 1/3 for 2 yds. Great.

Then I did what every lonely sports fan does with a free Sunday night: I ate fat-free refried beans and tried to chase my bad picks with a little play on the Mets. The METS! They lost. I need to talk to a professional. Particularly one who can handicap a game.

Nate checks in at 2-4, after some truly dead picks. He crushed his college picks this week, so it’s only natural that #NASCARNate would mail in a stinker for the NFL slate. I doubt he even picks this game. At least he didn’t take the Mets. THE METS!

The Godzilla is 8-5-1, but his Ravens pick is in jeopardy. I called him to ask what he thought of the Mets over the Padres in a pivotal game three. “Joe Musgrove is good,” I said. “So is the other guy,” he said. “So I should take the Mets?” I said. “Best bet,” he said. So this is all his fault.

Let’s get to the Monday Night AFC slugfest between the anemic Raiders and the streaky Chiefs. Should be a fun one.

How to Watch

Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-7) (o/u 51.5)

John: Monday night at Arrowhead. Are you kidding me?  Sorry, Raiders. Prime time in Kansas City is not a good time to play the Chiefs. Plus, the Raiders are not stopping anybody these days. Pick: Arrowheads -7

Jack: You can’t go wrong with the Godzilla’s astute analysis that goes something like “OMG Raiders suck ha ha ha ha.” Let’s actually take a look at a statistic.

I’ve had a rough week picking against the spread, so I’m staying away from that. I fare better with the point totals anyways. They can be easier to guess (and that’s all this is: educating guessing) when the feel for the games starts to slip. Is 51.5 too much here? Nah.

According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs rank 21st in seconds/play, while the Raiders rank 13th. These two offenses are known for scoring, but they don’t exactly play at a fast clip. This statistic is my favorite to use when looking at the over/under, but it’s not always a great bellwether. The Lions play at a very fast clip and failed to score a touchdown this week.

The Chiefs rank fifth in DVOA for offense. They score. We know this. The Raiders rank 13th in DVOA for rushing offense. They’re 20th in DVOA for passing offense. They have been unreliable so far this season. However, the Josh McDaniels offense is notoriously hard to run and it may be that David Carr is still adjusting.

The Chiefs have struggled this year on defense and are susceptible to the big play. The Raiders have to get it right at some point and I can see both teams scoring thirty. Let’s hope for a Monday Night shootout. Pick: Over Total Points +/- 51.5.

Nate: I’m at the bar. No Pick.