Las Vegas Bowl Odds and Best Bets

Florida Gators (6-6) vs. Oregon State Beavers (9-3)

LAS VEGAS BOWL ODDS AND BEST BETS - When you are betting bowl games, there are about a billion different variables that go into the line and they often shift dramatically. That’s certainly been the case with this game.

The spread opened with Oregon State as a -7.5 point favorite, then it trickled down to -4.5 before rocketing up to -10.5.

Why has this line shifted so much? Well, mostly due to a lot of unknowns surrounding who will be quarterbacking for the Gators. Anthony Richardson has declared for the NFL Draft and will be sitting this game out as he prepares to take his game to the biggest stage. McShay has him going 11th to the Carolina Panthers in his first mock draft, so losing a first round talent is a tough way to enter a bowl game.

After that, the snaps should have gone to Jalen Kitna, but he’s been dismissed from the team after being arrested on charges related to possession and distribution of child pornography.

That leaves Jack Miller III as the presumptive starter, though he has never actually taken a snap for the Gators, so that will be a massive unknown. He’s a four-star recruit who was in the ESPN 300 coming out of high school in 2020, so it’s not like all hope is lost, but it’s fair to wonder how this offense will look.

Nate's Pick

It sounds ridiculous, but motivation is often a huge variable that has to get factored in. How locked in will a 6-6 Florida team be given all these distractions?

Oregon State has plenty to be happy about with their season after a rather surprising leap in performance that left them ranked throughout much of the season.

On paper, even without the distractions and motivation issues, this is not an ideal matchup for the Gators. The Beavers come into this game with the 17th rated rushing offense, per PFF. The Gators grade out at 57th against the rush, so they are going to have their hands trying to slow down Oregon State on the ground. Add to this that the Gators are horrible in getting off the field on third downs and, just generally, getting off the field at all on defense, and it’s clear why Oregon State is favored here.

These lines get pretty sharp just because there is so much time for these lines to settle in as pros and squares make their bets, and I don’t see a ton of value for a side on this game.

The under has gotten my attention though. It seems pretty clear that Oregon State will want to run the ball, which means the clock will be moving pretty steadily. When we factor in all of the unknowns with Florida’s offense, I think the under is the safer bet here.

Author

Nate Perry, Senior Analyst #NoPickNate

Nate Perry is a career college educator and literary writer who tends bar to get the inside scoop on sports. He makes his living in hardscrabble downtown Reno, Nevada. A sports handicapper by trade, Nate is legendary at the sportsbook in Reno. If you can gamble on it, chances are Nate has tried his hand at it. He's a former fiction writer who has turned to writing about sports in a desperate bid to get published, much to the chagrin of nearly everyone around him. He is featured here with his extremely large dog, Boatswain.
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Las Vegas Bowl Odds and Best Bets