Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics Expert Pick – August 26, 2023

LAS VEGAS ACES VS. WASHINGTON MYSTICS EXPERT PICK – AUGUST 26, 2023– Greeting basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on today’s slate features the Las Vegas Aces (30-4) taking on the Washington Mystics (15-18). 

Despite the Aces being in a class by themselves, anything can happen. Even if the opponent is the team currently in the No. 8 spot in the playoff race. With that sentiment in mind, here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, August 26, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET

Where: St. Elizabeths East Entertainment and Sports Arena, Washington, D.C.

TV: TV, NBCS-DC, Monumental, and Silver State Sports & Entertainment Network

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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LAS VEGAS ACES VS WASHINGTON MYSTICS – SEASON TRENDS

ACES CONTINUE TO SHOW THEY’RE THE BEST TEAM IN THE LEAGUE

The Aces come into this matchup on the heels of a two-game winning streak. In their most recent outing, they defeated the Chicago Sky 94-87 to notch their 30th win of the season. Although the defending champs have had a few minor hiccups this season, they have yet to lose consecutive games. 

What’s not to like about Las Vegas? They have the most potent offense in the league. And they lead the league in field goal percentage, knocking down 49 percent of their overall attempts. Las Vegas is also shooting 38.1 percent from beyond the arc – the second-best mark in the association. 

Las Vegas is ranked second in scoring defense (80.3 PPG) and they boast the league’s best defensive rating, allowing just 98.9 points per 100 possessions. I should also mention that the Aces are currently ranked 3rd in opponent field goal percentage, allowing 42.8 percent shooting from the field. The Mystics are going to have their hands full in this matchup. 

Mystics Hoping To Move Up In The Standings

Meanwhile, the Mystics come into this encounter with a two-game losing streak. One of those losses came at the hands of the Connecticut Sun back on August 22. The Sun won that game by a narrow 68-64 margin. Natasha Cloud scored a team-high 22 points to go along with five rebounds. Every game is important for the Mystics down the stretch as they are just 1.5 games behind the Dallas Wings – who are currently slotted in the No. 5 spot. 

Despite their 15-18 record, the Mystics are a decent team from a metrics standpoint.

• Scoring: 80.5 points per contest (8th).
• Offense Rating: 100.7 points per 100 possessions (8th).
• Scoring Defense: 81.8 points per game (5th). 
• Defense Rating: 102.3 points per 100 possessions (5th). 

The above stats lead me to believe that this game could be closer than we think. 

The Picks

The Spread

The Aces are favored to win this game by 10.5 points. Here is a look at some factors that point to the defending champs being able to cover the large spread. 

• Las Vegas is 23-7 ATS the last 30 times they played on a Saturday.
• The Aces are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one day of rest. 
• Las Vegas is 14-6 ATS in its last 20 road games against Washington. 
• Washington is 3-9-1 ATS in its previous 13 times facing an opponent with a winning record.
• The Mystics are 0-7 ATS in their last seven outings against Western Conference opponents. 

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5)

Over/Under

The O/U total for this game is 167.5 points. I am going with the OVER in this contest and here’s why. 

• The OVER has hit for Las Vegas in six of its last seven games following an ATS loss.
• In the Aces’ last seven Saturday games, the OVER is 5-2. 
• The OVER has prevailed 17 times in the last 22 road games for Las Vegas.
• In Washington’s last four games against Western Conference opponents, the OVER is a perfect 4-0. 

Prediction: OVER 167.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Unfortunately, there was no PPB available at the time of this writing. My key player to watch in this contest is Las Vegas Aces forward A’ja Wilson. 

As one of the players in the running for MVP, Wilson is averaging career highs in points (22.1) rebounds (9.5), and shooting percentage (54.3). Not only that, but Wilson recently tallied a career-high 53 points against the Atlanta Dream on Aug. 22. In that contest, she shot an efficient 16-for-23 from the field and she converted 20 of her 21 attempts at the charity stripe. 

Wow.

And in her lone game against the Mystics this season, Wilson pumped in 40 points to go along with the 12 rebounds. Based on these trends, I would advise going with the OVER if the projected total is 21.5 points or less because Wilson is averaging 24.4 points across her last 10 outings.

Prediction: A’ja Wilson OVER 21.5