Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Expert Pick – October 15, 2023

LAS VEGAS ACES VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 15, 2023 – Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

The highly-anticipated WNBA Finals matchup between the New York Liberty and the Las Vegas has been one-sided thus far. The defending champion Aces have a 2-0 lead in this best-of-five series, with the venue shifting to New York.

Will the Liberty stave off elimination or will the Aces become the first team to repeat since the Los Angeles Sparks pulled off the feat in 2001-02? Since the Finals went to a best-of-five format back in 2005, 17 teams have jumped out to a 2-0 lead.

Each of those teams went on the win the series. Can the Liberty become the first team to do the unthinkable?

Let us take a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, October 15, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

TV: ABC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty – Regular Season/Postseason Recap And Betting Trends

As it was previously mentioned the Aces took the first two games of this series. But the story goes a bit deeper than that. It is not only that the Aces have been successful, but it is also about the factors that have contributed to their success.

One factor that was discussed coming into this series was how badly New York pounded Las Vegas on the boards in their three regular season wins against the reigning champs. The Liberty were a plus-57 in rebounds. Through the first two games of the series, the Aces have enjoyed a 74-65 advantage on the glass.

Another topic of discussion at the start of this series was New York’s prolific three-point shooting, which was warranted given how well they shot the long ball. The Liberty led the league in three-point shots made per outing (11.1) and three-point shots attempted (29.7). Even more important, the Liberty led the league in efficiency as they converted 37.4 percent of their attempts from beyond the arc.

While those numbers are certainly impressive, what has not been mentioned is the Aces were a close second as they converted 9.3 of their 24.9 attempts per contest, which equates to a conversion rate of 37.2 percent.

But in this series, the Liberty have struggled mightily with their long-range shooting. In Game 1, they shot 9-for-29 (31 percent) from the 3-point line. And in Game 2, it was even worse as New York shot 22.9 percent from 3, converting just eight of its 35 attempts.

During the playoffs, New York is shooting just 31.5 percent from deep. But in this Finals series, the team is shooting a very inefficient 26.5 percent. Meanwhile, Las Vegas has been very effective from the 3-point line, knocking down 43.3 percent of its attempts from beyond the arc.

Another troubling trend for New York is that one of its star players in these playoffs has been performing well, but she has not gotten a ton of help from teammates. The seemingly obvious answer would be Breanna Stewart since she won the league’s MVP award this year, right?

However, the player in question is Jonquel Jones. In Game 1, she scored 16 points on 7-for-12 shooting from the field while hauling in 10 rebounds. Although Stewart was the team’s leading scorer with 21 points, she was just 8-for-19 from the floor. Additionally, Courtney Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu were 6-for-18.

In Game 2, the unfortunate trend continued for Jones. She paced New York’s offense with 22 points and 10 rebounds. It is also worth mentioning she blocked four shots as well. But once again, she did not get much help as the rest of the starters shot 30.6 percent from the field (15-for-49).

The last trend I will touch on has to do with how the Aces’ backcourt has thoroughly outplayed their counterparts. In Game 1, Las Vegas’ backcourt outscored New York’s backcourt to the tune of 72-30. They followed that up with a 61-41 scoring advantage in Game 2.

All these factors, combined with the fact that Stewart has not been playing like an MVP, have contributed to New York facing a 0-2 deficit. If this team has any hope of extending this series, it will have to be better across the board in Game 3.

The Picks

The Spread

The Las Vegas Aces opened as a 2.5-point favorite. That line has moved to (-2). This low spread is not surprising because everyone is betting on New York to play with a greater sense of urgency with their season on the line. Despite this fact, here is why I am going with the Aces to cover AND win the game.

• Las Vegas is a perfect 4-0 ATS the last four times they played on three or more days of rest.
• The Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last five games that were played on a Sunday.
• Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in their last seven contests.
• The defending champs are 4-1 ATS in their last five championship contests.
• Las Vegas boasts a 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these two ball clubs.
• New York is 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
• The Liberty are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
• New York is 1-6 ATS in the last seven instances it has faced a team with a winning record.

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-2)

Over/Under

The projected point total for this contest opened at 170.5. The line has moved slightly to 171.5. Here is a look at why going with the OVER is the smart play.

• The OVER total is 4-1-1 for Las Vegas in its last six games following an ATS victory.
• The OVER total is 3-1-1 for the Aces in their last five games following an SU win.
• In the Aces’ last 13 games against teams with a winning record, the OVER is 9-3-1.
• The OVER is a perfect 8-0 for New York the last eight times it suffered an ATS loss.
• The OVER has prevailed in each of the Liberty’s last six games against Western Conference teams.
• In New York’s last 13 games against teams with a winning record, the OVER is 10-3.

 Prediction: OVER 171.5 points

Player Prop Bets

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this win-or-go-home game for the Liberty is Breanna Stewart. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 20. 5 points.

Yep, both her scoring and efficiency have dropped in this series compared to how she performed in the regular season. But because of the change in venue and the possibility of the season coming to a disappointing end on the Liberty’s home court, I am predicting that Stewart will have a vintage performance, albeit in a losing effort.

Prediction: Breanna Stewart OVER 20.5 points