LA Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Expert Pick – February 22, 2024

LA CLIPPERS VS. OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 22, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Thursday night’s slate features the LA Clippers (36-17 SU, 29-24 ATS) taking on the Oklahoma City Thunder (37-17 SU, 33-20-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, February 22, 2024

Time: 8:00 PM ET

Where: Paycom Center

Location: Oklahoma City Thunder, OK

TV: BSOK and BSSC

Related: Knicks vs. Sixers Expert Pick

LA Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

LA Clippers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Clippers Overtake The Thunder For The No. 2 Spot Out West?

 LA Clippers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.3 PPG – 10^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.6 points per 100 possessions – 3^RD
• Scoring Defense: 112.7 PPG – 9^TH                
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.9 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH

The Clippers have the third-best record in the Western Conference, and they have produced seven wins in their last 10 outings. This includes a 130-125 win over the Golden State Warriors on Feb. 14.

In that contest, James Harden paced the Clippers’ offense with 26 points, eight boards, and seven dimes. Paul George stuffed the stat sheet with 24 points, five rebounds, five assists, and two steals.

The Clippers overcame a double-digit deficit in the final frame despite the team’s leading scorer (Kawhi Leonard) sitting out the last 12 minutes due to a sore hip.

“I don’t think it’s serious,” Lue said. “He played through it last game. He was experiencing some soreness in the hip, so when the game got out of reach we didn’t put him back in the fourth quarter to be smart about it.”

It will be interesting to see how the Clippers match up against OKC if their top scorer has to sit out this game.

Can The Thunder Push Their Winning Streak To Three Games?

 Oklahoma City Thunder Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 120.8 PPG – 4^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.4 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 113.6 PPG – 13^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 113.2 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH

Meanwhile, the Thunder currently occupy the No. 2 spot in the Western Conference and have posted six wins across their last 10 decisions. OKC went into the All-Star break with a pair of wins against the Sacramento Kings and the Orlando Magic by an identical 127-113 margin.

In their win over the Magic, Jalen Williams finished with a team-high 33 points on 12-for-18 shooting from the field and 3-for-6 from beyond the arc. MVP contender, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, added 32 points, five assists, and three rebounds.

The Thunder led by eight points at intermission (60-52). But in the third quarter, OKC outscored Orlando 23-8 to take an 83-60 lead at the 6:10 mark, effectively putting the game out of reach.

“We kind of just weathered that storm, something we’ve been doing all year,” Willaims said via ESPN. “I think we were able to double down on our physicality and compete with them. Once we got our physicality back into the game, I thought we did a good job of course correcting and playing with a lead.”

The Thunder’s resolve will be tested against a Clippers squad that has won 34 times over its last 44 outings.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Thunder opened as a consensus two-point favorite. The line has recently dipped to 1.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Clippers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against OKC.
• Los Angeles is 0-5 ATS in their last five road matchups against the Thunder.
• In their last five games against Northwest Division teams, the Clippers are 1-4 against the spread.
• The Thunder are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games overall.
• OKC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against Western Conference teams.

Looking at the above metrics, neither team has fared too well against the spread as of late. But being that OKC is 21-6 at home and 18-9 ATS, going with the home team to cover is the best play here.

Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder (-1.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 240 points. At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 238.5 points. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Thunders’ last six games.
• The OVER total is 4-1 in OKC’s last five matchups against the Clippers.
• In the Thunder’s last 10 games, the OVER total hit eight times.
• The OVER total has prevailed six times in OKC’s last seven February contests.

Prediction: OVER 238.5 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the road team is James Harden. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Harden is averaging 17.5 points per outing.
• In 25 road contests this season, he is averaging 17.7 PPG.
• Harden has played against Western Conference teams 31 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 17.2 points per outing.
• In nine matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Harden averages 17.1 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Harden is averaging 17.6 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Harden is the smart choice here.

Prediction: James Harden OVER 16.5 points

Fresh off a 33-point effort against the Magic, my key player to watch for the home team is Jalen Williams. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 19.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 19.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Williams is averaging 19.2 points per outing.
• In 22 home contests, he is averaging 19.5 PPG.
• Williams has played against Western Conference teams 33 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 18.7 points per outing.
• In 13 matchups against Pacific Division opponents, Williams is averaging 21.4 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Williams has averaged 20.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jalen Williams OVER 19.5 points