LA Clippers vs. Miami Heat Expert Pick – February 4, 2024

LA CLIPPERS VS. MIAMI HEAT EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 4, 2024 –Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from Sunday’s slate features the LA Clippers (32-15 SU, 26-21 ATS) taking on the Miami Heat (26-23 SU, 21-27-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, February 4, 2024

Time: 6:00 PM ET

Where: Kaseya Center

Location: Miami, FL

TV: ESPN, BSSUN and KTLA

LA Clippers vs. Miami Heat Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Los Angeles Lakers vs. New York Knicks — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Clippers Continue Their Success Against The Eastern Conference?

 LA Clippers Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 118.5 PPG – 8^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.9 points per 100 possessions – 4^TH
• Scoring Defense: 120.0 PPG – 8^TH  
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.3 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH

The Clippers are one the hottest teams in the league right now. In addition to having the third-best record in the Western Conference, this team has also produced eight wins across its last 10 outings.

This includes a 136-125 win against the Detroit Pistons on Friday night. Kawhi Leonard paced LA’s scoring attack with 33 points, four rebounds, and three assists.

Russell Westbrook led the second unit with 23 points on an efficient 10-for-13 effort from the floor, and he converted two of his three attempts from beyond the arc while handing out nine assists. Westbrook became the 25^th player in NBA history to score 25,000 points.

His teammate, James Harden, accomplished the feat back in December. Paul George added 18 points, seven assists and four rebounds. The Clippers allowed 35 points in the first quarter in their win over the Washington Wizards last week.

That trend continued in this tilt as well, with the home team putting up 33 points in the opening quarter. While a solid defensive effort enabled Los Angeles to come out on top in that game against Washington, it was the team’s offense that allowed the Clippers to notch their fourth win (against one loss) on their seven-game road trip.

“We had a bunch of defensive mistakes at the start of the game,” Clippers coach Tyronn Lue said. “We weren’t guarding their shooters the way we planned, but we started paying attention to detail after the first timeout. Monty Williams has the Pistons playing pretty good basketball, but it is tough to close games with such a young team.”

The Clippers shot 59.6 percent from the field and 48.3 percent from beyond the arc. Another offensive explosion such as this one should position them to coast to another victory.

Can The Heat Slow Down The Clippers?

 Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.2 PPG – 15^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.0 points per 100 possessions – 7^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 109.2 PPG – 2^ND
• Defensive Efficiency: 112.7 points per 100 possessions – 7^TH

On the other side of this matchup, we have a Miami squad that is going in the opposite direction. Following a 23-16 start, the Heat have gone 3-7 over their last 10 games, dropping them to the seventh spot in the conference playoff race.

From a positive standpoint, Miami has won each of its last two games. This includes a 110-102 victory over the Washington Wizards on Friday night.

Jimmy Butler scored a team-high 24 points, grabbed nine rebounds, and handed out three assists. Bam Adebayo contributed with a double-double that included 20 points and 14 rebounds.

The good news is Miami held Washington to 41.1 percent shooting from the floor and 26.2 percent from 3-point range. On the other side of the narrative, the Heat struggled, converting just 43.2 percent of their attempts overall and a 22.6 percent conversion rate from long range.

Given those numbers, the Heat will need to be more efficient to defeat a Clippers team that has won 15 of its last 18 contests.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let us look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Clippers opened as a 3.5-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed for the road team. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Clippers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
• Los Angeles is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 matchups against the Heat.
• In their last six road matchups against Miami, the Clippers are a perfect 6-0 against the spread.
• The Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last nine outings.
• Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 February games.

Going with the surging road team to cover the small spread is the best option based on the above trends.

Prediction: LA  Clippers (-3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 228.5 points. The line has recently moved to 227 points. Here is why going with the “under” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Clippers’ last five games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed five times in Los Angeles’s last six road contests.
• In the Heat’s last 12 games, the UNDER total prevailed 10 times.
• The total has gone UNDER six times in Miami’s last seven home games.
• The UNDER total has cashed in eight times in the Heat’s last 10 matchups against Western Conference opponents.

Prediction: UNDER 227 points

Player Prop Bets

The key player to watch for the road team is James Harden. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 15.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 15.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 29 career games against the Heat, Harden is averaging 23.9 points per contest.
• On the season, Harden is averaging 16.9 points per outing.
• In 22 road contests this season, he is averaging 16.6 PPG.
• Harden has played against Eastern Conference opponents 13 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 18.2 points per outing.
• Harden has played eight times on a Sunday this season. In those contests, he has averaged 16 points per game.
• During January – a sample size of 15 games — he averaged 16.5 PPG, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Going with the “over” for Harden is the best option based on the above trends.

Prediction: James Harden OVER 15.5 points

The main guy to watch for the home team is Jimmy Butler. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 20.5 points.

• In 19 career games against the Clippers, Butler is averaging 17.5 points per contest.
• On the season, Butler is averaging 21.5 points per outing.
• In 17 home contests this season, he is averaging 23.5 PPG.
• Butler has played against Western Conference opponents eight times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 19.6 points per outing.
• Over his last 10 outings, Butler has averaged 22.7 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times.

Prediction: Jimmy Butler OVER 20.5 points