Knicks vs. Heat Game 6 Preview and Picks

KNICKS VS. HEAT GAME 6 PREVIEW AND PICKS — Happy Friday basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. The game up for discussion today is the No. 8 seed Miami Heat at home against the No. 5 seed New York Knicks.

Can the Miami Heat continue their Cinderella run by closing out the series in six games, or will the Knicks force a Game 7 back at Madison Square Garden?

Here’s a look at which team has the edge going into Game 6 and why. 

The Odds

Tipoff 

When: Friday, May 12, 2023 at 6:30 PM ET

Where: FTX Arena, Miami, FL

TV: ESPN

Public Money: Heat 79%

Public Bets: Heat 93%

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 12, 2023

How We Got Here 

The one common denominator between Miami and New York is both clubs advanced to the conference semifinals despite being the lower seed in the opening round of the playoffs. But that is where the similarities end. 

While the Knicks finished with the fifth-best record in the conference, the Heat needed a win in the play-in tournament to claim the last playoff berth in the East.

After upending the overall top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks, Miami took three of the first four games of this series, with a chance of eliminating New York on its home floor. 

With the possibility of their playoff run coming to an end, the Knicks jumped out to a 10-point lead after the first 12 minutes of action, and they led by as many as 19 points in the third. Although Miami fought back to cut the deficit to two points, the Knicks held on for a 112-103 victory. 

Jalen Brunson

One of, if not the only reasons why the Knicks live to see another day is Jalen Brunson. 

Brunson was one of three Knicks players in double figures, and he led all scorers with 38 points on 12-for-22 shooting from the floor and he converted four of his 10 attempts from beyond the arc. He also added nine rebounds and seven assists. What was even more impressive is that Brunson played all 48 minutes, an effort that wasn’t lost on head coach Tom Thibodeau.

“What can you say about the guy?” Thibodeau said, via ESPN. “He’s just incredible, all-around player. Great leader, great toughness. Mental toughness, physical toughness, ability to think on his feet, ability to lead, ability to connect with people, bring the best out of people. That’s what makes him special. And it’s play after play.”

Jimmy Butler

Another under-the-radar stat from Game 5 is Jimmy Butler scored less than 25 points for the first time this series. The good news is the Heat have responded well following a loss in these playoffs. 

They dropped Game 2 against the Bucks in the opening round before reeling off three straight wins to close out the series in five games. And after dropping Game 2 of this series, Miami posted victories in Games 3 and 4. 

Here are my betting picks for this contest. 

The Picks

Over/Under

The O/U total opened at 210 points. That line has moved to 208.5 points, with the Over attracting 58 percent of the cash and 64 percent of the tickets. In four of the five games, the two teams have combined for a total of 209 points. 

In the last 12 games, the Over is 10-2 for Miami when the opposition has scored 112 points in the previous outing. The Knicks scored 112 in Game 5. 

The Over is 16-5 for the Heat in the last 21 times in which they have played on one day of rest, which will be the case for the rest of this series, should it go the distance. 

The Over is 22-8 for Miami in the last 30 times in which it has scored more than 100 points in their previous game. Miami scored 103 points in a losing effort. 

New York has hit the over four of its last five times they have played on one day of rest. And the Over is 12-4-1 for the Knicks in their last 17 games against a team with a winning record. Miami finished the regular season with a 44-38 record. 

Prediction: Over 208.5 total points

The Spread

The Miami Heat opened as a consensus five-point favorite. At the time of this writing the line has not moved. 

The Knicks are 38-18-1 against the spread in their previous 57 road contests, and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five instances in which they have played on a Friday. This contest will take place on Friday night. 

But here is where it gets interesting. 

New York is just 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and 1-4 ATS the last five times their opponent has scored more than 100 points in their previous outing. Miami scored 103 points in Game 5. 

The Knicks have lost four of their last five games ATS against a team with a winning record. The Heat finished six games over .500 in 2022-23. 

Meanwhile, Miami is 6-1 ATS when their opponents have surrendered more than 100 points in their previous game. The Heat are also 5-1 ATS when they have given up more than 100 points in their previous outing.

Head-to-head, Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings between these two teams and 5-1 ATS in the last six encounters in Miami, which is the venue for Game 6. 

Lastly, Miami boasts a 40-17-1-mark ATS in their last 58 conference semifinal games. 

Prediction: Miami (-5)

Player Prop Bet

My key player for Game 6 is none other than Jalen Brunson. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -115 odds of scoring less than 27.5 points. 

Brunson has played against the Heat 15 times. He is averaging 20.6 points per contest. This is nearly seven points below the projected total for this contest. 

On the other hand, through the first five games of this series, he is averaging 29 points per contest. Even more important, the Knicks are 2-1 in the three games of this series in which Brunson has scored at least 30 points. That said, they will need another big-time performance from him to force a Game 7.

Prediction: Jalen Brunson OVER 27.5 points

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