Knicks vs. Heat Game 3 Preview and Picks – May 6, 2023 

KNICKS VS HEAT GAME 3 PREVIEW AND PICKS – May 6, 2023 — Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Our marquee matchup features the No. 5 seed New York Knicks taking on the No. 8 seed Miami Heat. With each team claiming a win in the first two games of this second-round series, let’s dive into this matchup to see who has the edge going into Game 3 and why.  

The Odds

Tipoff 

When: Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 3:30 PM ET 

Where: FTX Arena, Miami FL 

TV: ABC 

Public Bets: 60%, Miami

Public Money: 63%, Miami

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 6, 2023 

How We Got Here 

Following a three-game skid, the Knicks posted five wins in their last seven regular-season contests to finish with a 47-35 record. This was good enough for the fifth-best record in the eastern conference. This is just the second postseason appearance for this ball club since the 2012-13 campaign. New York made quick work of the No. 4 seed Cleveland Cavaliers, dispatching them in five games, setting up a second-round matchup with a familiar foe. 

Meanwhile, Miami had an up-and-down season, to put it nicely. The Heat were trounced by the Atlanta Hawks in their first play-in tournament game, which set up a win-or-go-home game against the Chicago Bulls. It appeared that Miami was going to miss the postseason dance altogether as they trailed late. But thanks to a 15-1 run down the stretch, the Heat emerged victorious and claimed the conference’s final playoff berth.  

The team’s reward was another postseason matchup against the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks. This would be the third time these two clubs have clashed in the playoffs over the last four seasons. While Miami’s season was inconsistent, this team was the best version of itself against Milwaukee. After splitting the first two games in Milwaukee, the Heat reeled off three straight wins to close out the series in five games. What was also impressive is the fact the Heat won the last two games of the series despite trailing by a double-digit margin in the fourth quarter.  

Although New York won three of the four regular-season meetings between these two teams, Miami’s momentum continued into the series opener as it stole home-court advantage with a 108-101 win.  

It was the team’s third road win of the postseason. Jimmy Butler led the team with 25 points to go along with 11 rebounds, four assists, and two steals.  

With Julius Randle back in the lineup, the Knicks responded with a win in Game 2 to avoid going on the road staring at an 0-2 deficit. Jalen Brunson – one of four Knicks players to score in double figures — pumped in 30 points on 10-for-19 shooting and 6-for-10 from beyond the arc.  

New York also got solid contributions from Randle (25 points, 12 rebounds, and eight assists), R.J. Barrett (24 points, including 16 in the first quarter), and Josh Hart (14 points, 11 rebounds, and nine assists).  

As the series shifts to Miami for the next two games, here are my betting picks for Game 3, including my confidence meter for each pick (on a scale of 1-5 stars) 

Over/Under 

The projected over/under points total for this contest opened at 208. That line has moved to 209.5. 

The two teams averaged a combined 225.5 points per contest. And the current projected 209.5 points total was exceeded in three of the four regular-season meetings between the two ball clubs.  

The Over holds a 10-3-1 record for New York in its last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Miami finished with a 44-38 record in the regular season and is 5-2 in the playoffs.  

The Over total has hit for Miami 17 times in its last 22 games in which its opponents allowed 100 or more points against them. Miami scored 105 points against New York in Game 2.  

The Over boasts an impressive 20-7 record in Miami’s last 27 games in which they topped the century mark in its previous outing. Miami scored 105 points in their Game 2 loss.  

The Over is 19-7 in the Heat’s last 26 games and 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams in Miami.  

Prediction: Over 209.5 points ★★★ 

The Spread 

The Miami Heat opened as a consensus three-point favorite. That line has moved to (-4.5).  

Miami is a perfect 4-0 against the spread in its last four home games. 

The Heat are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 second-round playoff games and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against an opponent with a winning record. The Knicks were 47-35 during the regular season. 

Miami won ATS each of the last five times the team scored 100 or more points in the previous outing.  

Prediction: Miami Heat (-4.5) ★★★★ 

Player Prop Bet 

My player to watch in this contest is Jimmy Butler. Butler currently has -115 odds of scoring more than and less than 27.5 points. 

Butler was virtually unstoppable in the five-game set against the Bucks. In the last two games of the series, he scored 42 and 56 points, respectively.  

Not only that, but he averaged 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.8 assists. He shot 59.7 percent from the field and a respectable 44.4 percent from the 3-point line.  

It is important to mention that Butler did sprain his ankle in the season opener. And he missed Game 2 because of the ankle injury. If he can play – and that is a big IF – I expect him to exceed the projected points total as he is averaging 35.5 points per contest in the playoffs.  

Prediction: Jimmy Butler OVER 27.5 points  ★★★

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