Kentucky vs. Tennessee Expert Pick and Prediction – January 28, 2025

KENTUCKY VS. TENNESSEE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 28, 2025 — It’s the border battle between two of the SEC’s strongest programs, and Kentucky really finds itself needing a win. The Wildcats have dropped two in a row, and the SEC title is starting to look more like a pipe dream in Lexington.

Kentucky is still in reasonable shape for making the tournament, but a No. 4 or No. 5 seed isn’t really what Big Blue Nation expects. Then again, given that Kentucky’s been bounced by double-digit seeds in two of its past three tournaments, that might work out better.

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Tennessee has struggled in SEC play in true road games, but the Volunteers have been practically unbeatable in Knoxville. The Volunteers haven’t allowed anyone to stay within 10 points of them on their home floor, which includes routs of Georgia and Mississippi State. Tennessee is coming off a two-point defeat at Auburn, but other than one pratfall at Florida, the Volunteers have looked like they might be the nation’s best.

But that’s a problem in this rivalry. The underdog has won the game straight up in the past five meetings, and seven of 10 have gone to the team getting points. And that might be exactly what Kentucky needs to get out of its funk.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, January 28 at 7 p.m.

Where: Food City Arena, Knoxville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Kentucky vs. Tennessee In-Season Trends

Kentucky has yet to cover without winning the game outright. Of course, that’s because the Wildcats usually are favored, as this marks the first time all year they’ve been an underdog. Beating Duke early in the season will do that, especially given what the Blue Devils have become.

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Tennessee loves to force teams to work by playing excellent defense, and it usually ends up happening. The 53-51 loss to Auburn was a great example of the Vols dictating the pace, even in defeat. The under has cashed in six of eight games because of Tennessee’s commitment to defense.

The Difference-Makers

The Volunteers do have a weakness: they are not good shooters. Tennessee only ranks 99th nationally in field goal percentage, which means Amari Williams has to make himself big on the glass. If he can hold Tennessee to one shot per trip, Kentucky has a chance.

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Igor Milicic Jr. will try to control Kentucky on the glass, which has historically been a tough job. The Wildcats don’t rebound as well as they used to under John Calipari, but they still rebound well. Milicic Jr. could have a big night if he can get a few putbacks and stop Kentucky from getting their own.

The Pick

This is a tough one, given how the recent series has gone. But Kentucky on the road inspires no confidence, especially here. The Vols have dominated on their home floor, and there’s no reason to expect that to change here. As long as the Vols aren’t still sulking about Auburn, they should handle business here.