Kansas vs. Texas Expert Pick and Prediction – September 30, 2023

KANSAS VS. TEXAS: EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 30, 2023 — The last time Kansas stood on this field in Austin, the Jayhawks announced to the world that good things would soon be happening in Lawrence. The Jayhawks shocked the Longhorns for their first win in Austin and just their second win of the 2021 season. Kansas didn’t win again in 2021, but it did set the stage for a six-win season the next year, marking its first bowl game in 14 years.

Kansas needs just two more wins to secure back-to-back bowl bids, and the Jayhawks finally got a measure of respect by earning a national ranking. But Texas has learned quite a bit since that night, and the Longhorns have grown even more than the Jayhawks over two years. Texas now sits No. 3 in the nation and with a win at Alabama on the resume, the Longhorns are on track to make the College Football Playoff.

Texas looked very good in thrashing Baylor last week, and the Longhorns aren’t likely to make the same mistakes that doomed BYU last week in Lawrence. But the Jayhawks have been a thorn in Texas’ side for a while, winning two of the past seven meetings and keeping two others to within one score.

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The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, September 30th at 3:30 p.m. EDT

Where: DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, Texas

TV: ABC

Public Bets: 58% on Kansas

Public Money: 89% on Kansas

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 28th, 2023.

Kansas vs. Texas In-Season Trends

Both teams have one thing in common: they’ve been terrible at covering large spreads. Both of their ATS defeats have come when they were favored by 20 points or more, which doesn’t come into play in this game. Kansas has also been a very slow starter. The Jayhawks have seen the over cash five times in their past six games, but the first quarter over has only cashed once in that stretch.

Texas hasn’t really been a place that’s seen a lot of points as of late. The Longhorns have only seen the total cash one time in their past six games in Austin. Granted, they’ve had no problems scoring on Kansas, hitting at least 50 points on their own in three straight against the Jayhawks.

Related: Georgia vs. UAB Recap

Weather

These could be tough conditions, so plan accordingly. With temperatures sitting around 96 degrees during the day in Austin, it’s likely that players are going to suffer throughout this contest. Banking on a late finish might be a bad idea in these conditions.

The Difference-Makers

Quinn Ewers hasn’t turned the ball over once all season, which makes this a tough task for a questionable Kansas pass defense. The Longhorns do most of their work with the pass anyway, and Ewers shouldn’t have too much trouble carving a Kansas defense that hasn’t held anyone under 17 points.

Things are less clear for Kansas. Devin Neal has done most of the work on the ground, but Texas’ ground defense isn’t exactly one that’s easy to gain yards against. The Longhorns only give up 87.3 yards per game on the ground, which means Jalon Daniels could be asked to put the ball in the air. He’s capable, but that’s not really how Kansas likes to play.

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The Pick

Kansas isn’t going to be intimidated by Texas, but the Jayhawks also probably aren’t going to be able to run the ball as well as they have the past few weeks. The Longhorns have already shown they can stop the run, and Kansas’ plan B really isn’t as good as what Texas has on offer.

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The Jayhawks are much improved, but still have a ways to go to get to the level of Texas. So the Longhorns have to be the play here.