Kansas State vs. Iowa State Expert Pick and Prediction – March 2, 2025

KANSAS STATE VS. IOWA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 2, 2025 — It’s time to break out the Cycloneer shirts in Morgantown, W. Va., because almost nobody needs an Iowa State win more than West Virginia right now.

The only exception is Iowa State itself, which badly needs to beat Kansas State to strengthen its resume for the NCAA tournament. The Cyclones are currently one of the last four teams in the field, and a win over the Wildcats would make a big difference in their push to the Big Dance.

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As far as West Virginia is concerned, the Mountaineers want a double bye at the Big 12 tournament. West Virginia is already safely in the clubhouse at 13-5, which puts them a half-game behind both Kansas State and Oklahoma State for fourth place. The Mountaineers own the tiebreaker with the Wildcats but split with the Cowgirls, which makes this the big one from the West Virginia perspective. K-State went 0-2 against Oklahoma State and West Virginia, so if the Wildcats and the Cowgirls all end up at 13-5, Oklahoma State would become the No. 3 seed and West Virginia No. 4.

But the Wildcats can put all of that to bed by going to Ames and winning. If they do, the NCAA tournament is likely coming to Manhattan, as K-State would likely remain on the No. 4 seed line. If they don’t, they’re likely on the road in round 2.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Sunday, March 2 at 4 p.m.

Where: Hilton Coliseum, Ames, Iowa

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Kansas State vs. Iowa State In-Season Trends

The biggest reason Iowa State is on the bubble and not in the field is because the Cyclones can’t beat teams ranked in the top 25. To date, Iowa State has faced seven opponents in the top 25 and beaten a grand total of none of them. That includes Kansas State, which beat the Cyclones in overtime on Jan. 30 in Manhattan.

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The Wildcats have run into a similar issue. They’ve gone just 3-3 in their past six games, and all three defeats have come to ranked opposition. Kansas State really isn’t finishing strong, a big worry if they fall off the No. 4 line.

The Difference-Makers

Can Emily Ryan send the ball where it needs to go this time? She dished out nine assists in the first meeting, but she also committed eight of Iowa State’s 23 turnovers. K-State had just 13 and won in overtime, so a little more care with the ball would make a big difference.

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Serena Sundell took over the game last time, scoring 23 points and sitting just three minutes. She also had her fair share of turnovers, but the rest of the team bailed her out by being careful with the ball otherwise.

The Pick

K-State was the superior team at home, but the Wildcats are not looking like themselves right now. They’re sinking at the wrong time, and this game is everything to Iowa State. Win here, and the Cyclones can likely seal the deal with one win in Kansas City. Lose, and Iowa State might need to make the semifinals to get back on the bubble. The Cyclones make sense as the pick.