John Fredericks: Super Bowl 57 Pick and Prediction

John Fredericks: Super Bowl 57 Pick and Prediction

CARY, North Carolina—The one thing about the Super Bowl for those of us who handicap NFL football for 21 straight weeks including playoffs: it’s a winner-take all game. 

No one cares what your record ATS is if you win the big game. It’s irrelevant. Same goes if you lose it. One game really brands a season for those of us who do analysis and predictions every week.

This, more than any other Super Bowl in recent memory, is the Mahomes Bowl.

If I had a dime for every time Patrick Mahomes has been talked about these past two weeks on ESPN, I could buy the top 100 radio stations in America on Monday. Cash. It’s really become asinine how the league has focused on one player. 

That’s why I love Philadelphia tonight. 

22 players and a solid bench vs. one quarterback.

Click here to read our Super Bowl prop picks mega-thread. 

Don’t Buy the Hype

When you spit out all the hype, it really boils down to this: the Eagles are a better football team. They are undoubtedly the best team in the NFL right now. History shows the better-balanced team wins these big games. While Jalen Hurts is no Mahomes, he has proven to be a very steady warrior all season. 

There are so many reasons why I like Philly here. 

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Follow the Money

Let’s follow the money. The game opened on DraftKings at pick ‘em. I immediately jumped on the Eagles. So did the Vegas big–money wise guys, so the line ballooned to Eagles -2.5 in several hours. Then it settled down to Eagles -1.5, where it has stayed for 13 days in a row.

If you believe in trends, when a line moves in a Super Bowl by 1.5 or more, the team that got the early bettors to move it has gone 16-2 straight up and 14-4 ATS. That’s the Eagles. 

Old School

I don’t usually bet trends, so why else am I all over Philadelphia? 

Those who follow my picks know one thing for sure: I’m old school in a new school world. Big games are still won in the trenches. Give me the NFL team that punches you in the mouth first and I’ll win a lot of picks. 

The Eagles O-line is nothing short of dominant. It’s the best in the league. They’ve pummeled opponents with a devastating run game that culminated in 39 rushing touchdowns. 

Then there’s Aaron Rodgers. Wait, what-he’s not playing. True, but here’s what he said: “The Eagles D-line is the best I’ve faced since coming into the league in 2005.” 

With 70 sacks, that’s good enough for me. 

Did I mention their secondary, which has been lights out all season long? 

The Pick

The Eagles are built to control the clock and control the line of scrimmage. Remember how they wore down a powerful and spirited Forty-Niners defense two weeks ago? It’s relentless. The best way to beat Mahomes: control the time of possession. You do that, you beat the Chiefs. 

Finally, Kansas City should not even be in Phoenix. The refs gave the game to Mahomes with bologna calls down the stretch to extend drives and get them in field goal range. The smoke-and-mirrors love ref-fest show for the Chiefs crashes today. The Chiefs have more questions than answers. 

The Eagles were built to beat the Chiefs. 

Eagles -1.5 

DISCLAIMER: Godzilla Wins is for entertainment purposes only. Must be 21 or older, and reside in states where sports wagering is legal only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the Problem Gambling Helpline at 888-532-3500.