James Madison vs. Charlotte Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

JAMES MADISON VS. CHARLOTTE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — 2023 was a joyride for James Madison from start to finish. But can the Dukes do it again?

If they can, they’ll essentially be doing so with a completely new group. Madison was long an FCS power under multiple coaches, and Curt Cignetti became the latest to jump from Harrisonburg to a bigger job. He’s now at Indiana, and Bob Chesney made the move south from Holy Cross, swapping one shade of purple for another. Chesney won big at the academically oriented school, and he should be able to stabilize things for Madison.

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Biff Poggi and Charlotte are a long way from stability. The 49ers have looked much more like a typical FCS team moving up to FBS than Madison has. While the Dukes made the transition look easy, the 49ers have mostly drifted between bowl eligibility and coming up short. Poggi had a tough go in his first try as a head coach, going 3-9 in year one.

The 49ers couldn’t get much of anything from their offense last year, so Poggi opted against giving his walk-on incumbent Trexler Ivey another shot and hit the portal for Max Brown of Florida. If he can get Charlotte’s offense above 200 passing yards per game, it would go a long way toward making the 49ers respectable.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Jerry Richardson Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.

TV: ESPNU

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

James Madison vs. Charlotte In-Season Trends

Home hasn’t been a very friendly place for Charlotte as of late. Over the past two seasons, the 49ers are 2-10 SU and 2-10 ATS on their home turf, beating only Louisiana Tech and South Carolina State. The 49ers failed to cover against the FCS school, and their only home cover was taking Memphis to overtime while catching 10.5.

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Madison is 2-0 all-time against Charlotte, but those meetings came while both teams were in FCS. The Dukes went just 2-3 ATS outside of the Sun Belt last season, but they did win all four of their regular season non-conference matchups. In two years at the FBS level, the only non-conference foe to beat Madison in the regular season is Louisville.

Weather

Television did these teams a favor. The afternoon is pretty gross with a major thunderstorm rolling in, but by kickoff, the worst should be gone. Temperatures will sit in the low 80s with little chance of precipitation.

The Difference-Makers

Bob Chesney isn’t the only one sporting a different shade of purple. Dylan Morris played for two seasons at Washington, but he lost his starting job in 2022 when Michael Penix Jr. became available. Morris spent the past two years as Penix’s backup, leaving him with one final season of eligibility left to start somewhere else. Whether he’s rusty or ready after two years of running the scout team will tell a lot about Madison.

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CJ Stokes found his way from Ann Arbor to Charlotte, reuniting him with Poggi, the former Wolverines offensive assistant. Stokes had some success running the ball before transferring, but he’s now running behind a patchwork line that’s seen some injuries in camp.

The Pick

When Poggi said his team was down half its starters to injury, it didn’t feel like he was blowing smoke. Charlotte simply doesn’t have the personnel or depth to compete on the level of James Madison in a best-case scenario. With the 49ers dealing with injuries, it’s even kless likely.

Madison likely has some kinks to work out with a new coach, but odds are high that they get things figured out quickly. The Dukes should have the edge here.