JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 10, 2024

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 10, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of several games on Sunday’s slate features the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7 SU, 5-4 ATS) hosting the Minnesota Vikings (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 10, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: EverBank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL

TV: FOX

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Minnesota Vikings — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Jaguars have dropped seven of their first nine games and enter this tilt with back-to-back losses against the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles. While Jacksonville scored 23 points despite having the ball for just 21 minutes, the team’s defensive effort was underwhelming. The Eagles outgained them by a 447-215 margin. The Jaguars also gave up 237 yards on the ground, and Philadephia was 9-for-17 on third down. Given the Jaguars’ mediocre rankings on both sides of the football, they may have difficulty keeping up with Minnesota.

At the other end of the spectrum, following a 5-0 start, the Vikings have stumbled a bit with two losses across their last three contests. Fortunately, they ended a two-game losing skid with a 21-13 win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 9. Sam Darnold completed 28 of 34 passes for 290 yards in that contest. Although he did have a pair of interceptions in a scoreless first half for the Vikings, he rebounded with three touchdown scores in the second half. Justin Jefferson led all receivers with seven grabs totaling 173 yards, while Aaron Jones accounted for 64 of Minnesota’s 133 rushing yards. From a defensive perspective, both teams are middle-of-the-road at best. With that in mind, this has the potential to be a high-scoring game.

Now that we have set the stage for this interconference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both sides.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

The Spread

With four losses in its last six games, Jacksonville enters this contest as a 4.5-point underdog (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Jaguars are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall.
• Jacksonville has covered the spread four times in its previous five November contests.
• The Jaguars are an impressive 4-1 ATS in the last five instances they were listed as the underdog.
• Meanwhile, the Vikings are 6-2 ATS in their previous eight games.
• Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in their last six November outings.
• In their last six Week 10 games, the Vikings have covered the spread each time.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-4)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected scoring output is 45 points (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both sides have performed against the over/under this season.

• The total has gone OVER in each of the Jaguars’ last five games.
• The UNDER total is 5-1 in Jacksonville’s last six Week 10 outings.
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in the Jaguars’ previous six Sunday contests.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Vikings’ last five road games.
• The UNDER total is 7-1 in Minnesota’s last eight matchups against AFC opponents.

Prediction: OVER 45 points

Player Prop Bet

Usually, my key player is from the host team. However, since no player prop data is available for Jacksonville at the time of this writing, my selection for this matchup is Sam Darnold. He currently has -115 odds of exceeding 251.5 passing yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 251.5 yards (per DraftKings). Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the estimated yards total.

• During the season, Darnold is averaging 237.5 yards per game.
• In three career matchups against the Jaguars, Darnold has averaged 130.3 yards per outing.
• The Vikings have played three road games this season. Darnold has averaged 241 yards per outing in those contests.
• In three games against AFC opponents this season, Darnold is averaging 216.7 yards per game.
• Darnold has averaged 263 yards per outing over his last three starts, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Sam Darnold UNDER 251.5 passing yards