Is Indiana’s Rise Under Curt Cignetti For Real?
IS INDIANA’S RISE UNDER CURT CIGNETTI FOR REAL? – October 8, 2024 — It’s October, and there’s an excitement in the air in Bloomington, Indiana.
Nothing new for this place. October’s always a time for excitement in Indiana, because it means the start of basketball practice. Hoosier Hysteria is real, and the season is just a month away. Except there’s one difference: this excitement has absolutely nothing to do with basketball.
Indiana is 6-0 and leading the Big Ten. In football. In Curt Cignetti’s first year at Indiana.
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The long-moribund Hoosiers have been an afterthought in the Big Ten in football for decades. How bad has it gotten in Bloomington before this year? Here’s an example: Over the past 73 seasons, the Hoosiers have made 39 trips to Columbus to play Ohio State. In those games, Indiana is 1-38. The one came in 1987, a 31-10 Indiana victory that ended a 23-game losing streak to the Buckeyes. And Ohio State promptly fired coach Earle Bruce at the end of the year.
That was a reasonably good Indiana team, as the Hoosiers won eight games that year. This year’s team has its sights set on topping that, which would qualify as a major miracle. Indiana has never won more than nine games in a season in its history. The last time the Hoosiers hit that total was 1967, which marked Indiana’s first and only appearance in the Rose Bowl.
So, can the Hoosiers sustain this and maybe make a run to the playoff? Here’s a look.
Indiana Isn’t Making Mistakes
Prior to Cignetti’s arrival in Bloomington, Indiana had won nine games in its past three seasons under former coach Tom Allen. And there was one big reason for that. The Hoosiers kept shooting themselves in the foot over and over.
In 2020, Allen’s best year in Bloomington, the Hoosiers went 6-2 and were plus-8 in turnovers. From 2021-2023, the Hoosiers went 9-27 and were minus-22 in turnovers. That’s a great way to lose games against anybody, and that’s why the Hoosiers went 1-8 in the Big Ten last season. The one win Indiana got came against Wisconsin, and the Hoosiers finished plus-2 in turnovers against the Badgers. Against everyone else? Minus-8.
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What was Curt Cignetti doing at James Madison while Tom Allen’s Hoosiers were falling apart? His teams in Harrisonburg went 32-7. He got the Dukes to a bowl game in just their second year in the FBS. And here’s the thing that really caught Indiana’s attention, or should have if it didn’t: Madison, under Cignetti, was plus-29 in turnovers from 2021-23.
That’s discipline, and Cignetti has brought that discipline to Bloomington. The Hoosiers are plus-5 in turnovers, mainly because they’re just not turning the ball over. They did commit four turnovers against Maryland, but that gets an asterisk because that game was played in the remnants of Hurricane Helene. When the weather hasn’t been poor, the Hoosiers haven’t turned it over. That wins games.
A Favorable Schedule
It has to be said: the schedule has opened up a lot for Indiana. The Hoosiers were stuck in a division that included Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan, which has been three guaranteed losses most years. This year, Penn State is off the schedule entirely and the Hoosiers drew a few favorable games.
UCLA isn’t exactly frightening from the western schools, nor is Washington. Oregon and USC aren’t on the schedule, and the Hoosiers play most of their toughest games in Bloomington. Nebraska, Michigan and Washington all come to Memorial Stadium, and Indiana appears to have a shot to win each game.
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The one issue is the same issue that is usually there: Ohio State in Columbus. The Buckeyes are the one thing that everyone knows could keep Indiana from getting to the playoffs. Indiana couldn’t avoid all of the Big Ten’s best, and having to face the Buckeyes is probably the thing that derails the train. It could also go off the rails earlier; the only game left that looks like certain victory is Purdue (the Boilers are VERY bad). But for the moment, Indiana is at least on the track and has a destination in mind.
Trusting the Defense
Indiana has won in part because it believes in its defense’s ability to bend without breaking. The Hoosiers have broken somewhat, but slowly and never all at once.
The Maryland game was a great example. Indiana’s offense stunk in the first quarter against the Terrapins, but the defense kept the Terps from taking advantage. Maryland had seven possessions in the first half, scoring one touchdowns. Its other six possessions gained a grand total of two yards. And that meant Indiana took a lead into the locker room despite three turnovers. Maryland never got its nose in front.
In the second half, the defense broke somewhat. But the Hoosiers had given the offense enough time to get its legs under it. Against Northwestern, it was the same story. Indiana broke on defense in the second half, but not enough for the Wildcats to come back.
Of course, this is not sustainable long-term. Indiana must play a complete 60 minutes to maintain its success. But for now, this is working.
Where’s the Hoosiers’ Ceiling?
Much of this depends on how well quarterback Kurtis Rourke and the offense continue to play. Indiana hasn’t had to deal with expectations yet, but that can’t last forever. The Hoosiers will become the target over time, especially if they come in 9-0 when Michigan comes to Bloomington.
The biggest thing Indiana cannot do is fall behind. The Hoosiers have not trailed for one second in 2024, and that’s because of the defense doing its job long enough to let the offense catch up. But that is not workable against Ohio State. Indiana has to make sure it doesn’t fall in a hole by starting games stronger than it’s been doing.
It’s too early to tell if the Hoosiers can make the impossible happen. But a school record 10 wins is absolutely on the table…and might even be thought of now as realistic.
