Iowa vs. Ohio State Expert Pick and Prediction – October 5, 2024

IOWA VS. OHIO STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 5, 2024 — Do the Buckeyes have their minds where they need to be for this game? Ohio State has the talent to dominate Iowa, but the Buckeyes have a major problem on their hands: Oregon. The trip to Eugene to face the Ducks looms large next week, and Ohio State has to make sure that it’s not focused on that potential Big Ten title game preview.

Iowa, on the other hand, is entirely focused on Ohio State. The Hawkeyes just might not have the ability to actually do anything about it. Iowa has had a full two weeks to prepare for the Buckeyes, but it might not be anywhere near enough time. The Buckeyes haven’t been held under 38 points all year, and that was last week against Michigan State.

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Scoring that many points is usually an adventure for Iowa, but at least now it’s an adventure that’s possible. Last year, the Hawkeye offense was so bad that the goal was 325 points for the season…and Iowa didn’t come close to it. This year, the Hawkeyes have cracked 40 once and got 38 another time, but the offense still wouldn’t be considered elite by any means. Iowa’s more competent now, but the offense still isn’t a strength.

And that’s where this gets difficult for the Hawkeyes: they have to score to keep up. Of course, they could hope for Ohio State to already mentally be on the plane to Oregon, and that’s probably their best shot.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 5 at 3:30 EST

Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, Ohio

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 1st, 2024.

Iowa vs. Ohio State In-Season Trends

Remember the days of Iowa being an automatic under? Yeah, forget about that. The Hawkeyes have actually played over in all four games this year, as the public still thinks Iowa means 3-0. Kirk Ferentz probably would love to play that way, but the Hawkeyes are actually not horrible on offense this year. In all three wins, Iowa has scored at least 31 points.

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And that tracks with Ohio State, which has played over in five of six against Iowa. The Buckeyes have also beaten the tar out of the Hawkeyes over the past quarter century, winning 16 of the past 19 meetings. Being in different divisions limited their meetings, but the Buckeyes have won five of the past six. The lone exception was an Iowa explosion in 2017, where the Hawks scored 55 points.

Weather

Temperatures will start to drop a little bit on Saturday in Columbus. Highs will be around 77, with lows falling as far as 53 on a calm, clear day.

The Difference-Makers

Iowa has to get the ground game going. Kaleb Johnson has been a workhorse for the Hawkeyes, averaging 8.4 yards per carry and scoring nine touchdowns. Ohio State is likely to focus heavily on stopping the ground game, though, which might mean that Cade McNamara has to take to the air at times.

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Will Howard has stepped into the Buckeye offense and done a fine job, tossing eight touchdowns against two interceptions. He has to avoid the early mistake against Iowa, as the Hawkeyes will likely be swarming.

The Pick

Iowa’s going to try to keep the ball on the ground and keep the Buckeye offense watching. But this Ohio State offense is not one you can beat by slowing the game down. You have to be able to strike quickly at times, and I don’t think Iowa can do it. The Hawkeyes will likely put up some points here, but I don’t think the defense is going to hold for four quarters.

The one caveat is that this requires Ohio State to be focused on the task at hand. If the Buckeyes are focused, they’ll cruise to a win. If not, Iowa will hang around and backdoor this. I’m going with the total first, but I think the Buckeyes hold their focus.