Iowa vs. Missouri Expert Pick and Prediction – December 30, 2024

IOWA VS. MISSOURI EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 30, 2024 — If you’ve ever been through eastern Iowa or eastern Missouri, you’ll know that there’s no good route between Iowa City and Columbia. Perhaps that’s the reason that Iowa and Missouri haven’t played a regular season game since 1910 and have only met once on the field in the past 114 years.

Granted, the teams were supposed to play in the Music City Bowl in 2020, but COVID got in the way of that. The teams’ bowl meeting was cancelled, making this matchup a redo of what was supposed to occur four years ago.

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As is the norm these days, both teams are going to be missing star players. Iowa, offensively challenged on its best days, has to go without Kaleb Johnson at running back. The Hawkeyes really struggled on offense (what else is new?), as Cade McNamara proved that he was not the answer at quarterback. Iowa will turn to Brendan Sullivan, who hasn’t played since facing UCLA on Nov. 8.

Missouri will go without top wide receiver Luther Burden. The Tigers have a much more stable situation at quarterback, as Brady Cook will play in his fourth bowl game for Missouri. That hasn’t necessarily meant success; Cook is just 1-2 in bowls and the win came against Ohio State’s backups.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Monday, December 30 at 2:30 p.m.

Where: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Iowa vs. Missouri In-Season Trends

Iowa vs. the SEC usually means one thing: the under’s going to cash. Of course, Iowa vs. anybody has often meant the under is going to cash, but that wasn’t the case this year. The over actually went 9-3 in Hawkeye games this year, as Tim Lester did improve somewhat on Brian Ferentz’s failures. Having a top running back can do that, especially when bettors know you as offensively challenged. The under did cash in two of the final three games of the season, which could be a reaction to defenses not respecting Iowa’s passing game.

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The oddsmakers turned on Missouri after the Tigers got decked in College Station, and they never really came back around. And that allowed Missouri to go 6-1 ATS down the stretch, with the only failure being a 34-0 loss in Tuscaloosa. There is a worry about Missouri’s defense away from Columbia; the Tigers allowed 34 or more points in all three defeats.

Weather

No rain and 58 degrees is about as good as you can hope for in Nashville in December. The weather won’t be an issue.

The Difference-Makers

Sullivan has to step up in this game. Missouri is very opportunistic at forcing fumbles, knocking 15 of them loose during the regular season. The Tigers don’t pick off many passes; only LSU had fewer interceptions in the SEC this year. That means Sullivan can afford to take a few more chances against a defense that isn’t likely to make him pay. Missouri will likely try to force Iowa to pass anyway, so opportunities will be open for Sullivan.

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Theo Wease should be looking for space against the Iowa secondary. Phil Parker’s defense should still be set up well to deny the big play, but Wease was a solid No. 2 option and actually had more receiving yards than Burden. Cook is comfortable looking to him and will likely head there often.

The Pick

Iowa’s offense has really struggled down the stretch, and I don’t think Sullivan facing a lesser secondary will make much of a difference. Iowa really needed its full team to win this game, and it doesn’t have that here.

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A 10-win season is a motivator for a program like Missouri, and Cook has been here before. He should be ready for what Iowa throws at him, making Missouri the play.