Iowa State vs. Houston Expert Pick – February 22, 2025
Iowa State and Houston are in the top three of the Big 12, with Houston only having one loss in the conference. Houston had their 33-game home winning streak snapped by Texas Tech at the beginning of the month, with their last home loss coming on January 22, 2023. Iowa State had a tough stretch, losing three straight in conference before rattling off four in a row to turn things around. This matchup should be a great defensive battle. Read Iowa State vs. Houston expert pick – February 22, 2025.
Iowa State vs. Houston Head-To-Head
These teams have not met this season but met three times last season. The Cougars won one game, which was at Houston, and the Cyclones beat them at home and in the Big 12 Championship. The Cougars are 14-1 in conference, and the Cyclones are 11-4 this season. They are both ranked in the top 10 of the AP Poll.
This is the best matchup of the Saturday slate and should be a good one. Two of the last three matchups have gone under the point total, and Iowa State has covered twice. It should be a close contest, especially at Houston, where they have a high home-court advantage.
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Iowa State vs. Houston In-Season Trends
Both teams have a 15-7 record against the spread this season. Iowa State has gone over in 12 of 26 games, while Houston has gone over in 12 games, under in 13, and pushed once. Turnovers will play a major role in this game, like in every game. Houston ranks fourth in the country with 9.1 turnovers per game, while Iowa State averages 11.5. The Cyclones produce 9.4 steals per game, which ranks eighth in the nation. Houston averages 7.9 per game, and the turnover differential will be a deciding factor in this game. The Cougars need to take care of the ball, and they should have a great chance of winning this game at home.
There are two major injuries for Iowa State. Curtis Jones (illness) and Keshon Gilbert (muscle strain) have been ruled out. Curtis Jones and Keshon Gilbert are the leading scorers for Iowa State, averaging 17.2 and 14.1 points per game, respectively. Houston’s leading scorer is L.J. Cryer, with 14.5 points per game, but Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts can explode at any moment. Sharp is shooting 42.3% from three this season, which could be a game-changer in front of the home crowd.
Iowa State allows 66.9 points per game, and Houston leads the nation with 57.6 points allowed per game. That is why the total is only 134.5 on DraftKings. The Cyclones average 81.3, and the Cougars average 75.4, but I expect this matchup to be a lower scoring. Second-chance points are going to be important for Houston. They average 11.5 offensive rebounds per game and must grab their misses against the tough Iowa State defense.
The Pick
I am going to give out the under in this matchup. I lean towards Houston covering as 12.5-point home favorites, but I am hesitant to take Iowa State because they are without their two best players. The under makes more sense with the game at Houston.
