Iowa State vs. Arizona State Expert Pick and Prediction – December 7, 2024

IOWA STATE VS. ARIZONA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 7, 2024 — The magnitude of this game will be clear by the time kickoff happens. By the time Iowa State and Arizona State reach Arlington, they’ll know if they’re definitely playing for a top-four seed or not.

If UNLV can upset Boise State, the winner of this game will have a top-four seed in the playoff. The Runnin’ Rebels won’t be ranked high enough to finish ahead of either team, leaving the winner here to slot behind the ACC champion — or maybe ahead, depending on that result — as the last team with a bye.

Related: UNLV vs. Boise State Pick and Prediction

If Boise State wins, then things get more dicey. The winner of this game is still definitely going to the playoff, but it will likely be as the last team in the field. The exception comes if Clemson can win the ACC and bump the Big 12 winner into a top-four spot. But that will take place at night, so the winner here will have some nervous moments if it comes down to the Tigers.

The only thing known for sure is that the winner will definitely make the playoff. And considering neither of these teams was ever projected to get here this year, both would gladly take that.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, December 7 at Noon

Where: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Iowa State vs. Arizona State In-Season Trends

Is Iowa State a home-field hero? The Cyclones have failed to cover in four of their past six games, and the two covers both came inside Jack Trice Stadium. Iowa State did manage to cover at West Virginia and Central Florida, but those two games produced two of the Cyclones’ three lowest-scoring outputs of the season.

Related: Why Ohio State Should Fire Ryan Day

Arizona State’s magic number is 24. When the Sun Devils hit it, they’re 10-0 SU and 10-0 ATS. When they don’t, they’re 0-2 in both categories. The defense is going to do what it does; the question is whether the Sun Devils can attack enough to force Iowa State to play catch-up.

Weather

There’s no weather to worry about in the Cowboys’ stadium.

The Difference-Makers

Last year it was Oklahoma State and Ollie Gordon. This year, it’s Arizona State and Cam Skattebo. With 17 scores and 1,398 yards, Skattebo has the ability to control the clock and the field. Unfortunately for Iowa State, run defense is not what the Cyclones do well. Iowa State is the one team in the Big 12 that actually gives up more yards on the ground than through the air. That is a testament to the Cyclones’ solid pass defense, but it’s also a serious problem in this game.

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Iowa State goes in the other direction: Rocco Becht’s passing is crucial for the Cyclones. Their run game is average, as they don’t have any one bell cow back like Skattebo. Becht will likely spread the ball around to try to open things up.

The Pick

This seems to be the wrong matchup for Iowa State. The Cyclones really needed to face pass-heavy Colorado, not a ground-and-pound team like Arizona State. The Sun Devils excel in the trenches, and the front seven is Iowa State’s biggest weakness.

Related: Defense of James Franklin

With the ASU defense set up to win any game where the Sun Devils can get to 24 points, it’s hard to see Iowa State winning that kind of scoring contest. If the Sun Devil pass defense has a bad day, maybe, but it seems more likely that Skattebo will control the clock and the score.