INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. CHICAGO BEARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — September 22, 2024

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS VS. CHICAGO BEARS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — September 22, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of several games on Sunday’s slate features the Indianapolis Colts (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) hosting the Chicago Bears (1-1 SU, 1-0-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 22, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

TV: CBS

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

I picked the Colts to cover a small spread against the Green Bay Packers last week due to Jordan Love nursing an injury. Unfortunately, that did not happen, as Indianapolis was defeated 16-10 despite Green Bay trotting out Malik Willis under center. Anthony Richardson completed just 50 percent of his passes for 204 yards, with one touchdown and three picks.

Jonathan Taylor accounted for 103 of the team’s 140 rushing yards on 12 carries. From a defensive perspective, the Packers finished with 122 passing yards. However, they amassed 261 yards on the ground, including 164 yards in the first quarter. The good news for the Colts is that the Bears aren’t as good as the Packers, so a home win against a team that has struggled offensively is feasible.

At the other end of the spectrum, things look bad in the Windy City. After rallying from a 17-3 deficit to defeat the Tennessee Titans 24-17 in the season opener, Chicago fell to the Houston Texans 19-13 in Week 2. The defense didn’t play stellar, giving up 310 yards, including 260 through the air. But this unit did hold Houston to a field goal in the second half.

But if you thought the defensive effort was below average, I’m not sure what adjectives you would use to describe the Bears’ offense against the Texans. Caleb Williams finished 23 of 37 for 174 yards. Sure, this output nearly doubled his 93 passing yards in Week 1. However, Williams was sacked seven times and threw two interceptions.

Additionally, the Bears produced just 71 rushing yards on 22 attempts for an average of 3.2 yards per carry. I liked Chicago’s chances when I looked at this game against the Colts before the season started. But after witnessing the first two games of the 2024 campaign, I’m not so sure.

Now that we have set the stage for this Week 2 showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Although they dropped both games this season, the Colts enter this matchup as a 1.5-point favorite (via Bleacher Nation).

• The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
• Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in its last nine matchups against NFC North teams.
• In their previous eight Week 3 contests, the Colts have covered the spread seven times.
• Meanwhile, the Bears have covered the spread six times in their last nine games (6-2-1).
• Chicago is 2-4 ATS in its last six outings against Indianapolis.
• The Bears are just 3-12-1 in their last 16 Sunday road games.

Make no mistake, I don’t like the way the Bears have played thus far. However, given that the Colts are ranked 31st in total yards and 32nd in rushing yards allowed per outing, and the offense’s average time of possession is just 20 minutes through the team’s first two games, I believe Chicago can cover a microscopic spread.

Prediction: Chicago Bears (+1)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected points total is 43.5 points (via OddsShark). Let’s consider why going with the “under” is the smart bet.

• The total has gone UNDER nine times in the Colts’ last 13 September games.
• In the Bears’ last 12 outings the UNDER total is 9-3.
• The UNDER total has prevailed six times in Chicago’s last seven road contests.
• Lastly, the UNDER has cashed in four times in the Bears’ last five matchups against AFC opponents.

Prediction: UNDER 43.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch for the home team is Jonathan Taylor. He currently has -110 odds of exceeding 73.5 rushing yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 73.5 yards (via Bet365). Here’s how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Taylor is averaging 75.5 yards per outing.
• In his lone career matchup against Chicago (2020), Taylor rushed for 68 yards on 17 carries.
• Taylor is averaging 103 yards per game against the NFC this season.
• In one home game, Taylor is averaging 48 yards on the ground.
• Across his last five outings, Taylor has averaged 95.6 rushing yards, exceeding the yards total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jonathan Taylor OVER 73.5 rushing yards