Indiana vs. South Carolina Expert Pick and Prediction – March 29, 2024 

INDIANA VS. SOUTH CAROLINA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – March 29, 2024 — It’s rare that a No. 4 seed goes into a Sweet 16 game feeling like it has nothing to lose. It’s even rarer when said No. 4 seed was a No. 1 seed just one year earlier.

But that’s what Indiana faces, because South Carolina has been just that dominant this season. The Gamecocks are 70-1 over the past two seasons, and the one was to Iowa in last year’s Final Four. South Carolina has so thoroughly dominated women’s college basketball under Dawn Staley that this season will be the fourth time in five years that the Gamecocks will finish with two defeats or less.

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But for all of that dominance, the Gamecocks only have one national title in the past four seasons to show for it. One of them wasn’t their fault, as COVID robbed them of the chance to try to win a title with a 32-1 squad. The other two ended in the Final Four, which South Carolina hasn’t missed since 2019.

South Carolina appeared on another level in the first two rounds against Presbyterian and North Carolina, underscoring just how difficult this will be for the Hoosiers. But Indiana’s not totally helpless: the Hoosiers lead the nation in 3-point percentage. Of course, No. 2 is the Gamecocks, which is just another reminder that the Hoosiers pretty much have to be perfect to win this.

The Odds 

Tipoff 

When: Friday, March 29 at 5 p.m. EST 

Where: MVP Arena, Albany, N.Y.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable 

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of March 28th, 2024

Indiana vs. South Carolina In-Season Trends 

When Indiana makes its 3-pointers, it can compete with anyone in the nation. When it isn’t hitting, it is very vulnerable. Examples of both came in the Hoosiers’ Big Ten schedule, when they lost to league also-ran Illinois by 20, then turned around and squashed Iowa by 17. The difference was that the Hoosiers shot 30 percent from deep against the Illini and hit 43% against the Hawkeyes, which completely flipped the script.

Related: Alabama vs. North Carolina Pick and Prediction

South Carolina’s game has basically been sheer destruction. The Gamecocks terrorized the SEC and rarely played a close game outside of LSU and Tennessee. Outside of those two programs, the last time someone stayed within single digits of South Carolina was a 78-69 win over Utah in December.

But even that doesn’t provide much hope given the difference in the two meetings with North Carolina. The Gamecocks edged the Tar Heels by seven points just after Thanksgiving; they won the second meeting by 47.

The Difference-Makers 

Unlike a lot of teams that rely on five to seven players, Staley regularly goes deep into her bench and plays nine players more than 15 minutes per game. The flip side of that is that Staley has the ability to do that because her team is usually up by 30, but it’s telling that South Carolina can play nobody for more than 28 minutes and suffer no drop in quality.

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The biggest matchup issue is Kamilla Cardoso, a 6’7” senior who leads the Gamecocks in scoring and rebounding. Indiana lacks that kind of height, but Mackenzie Holmes is a deadeye shot and a good rebounder. She’ll need to be at her best to battle Cardoso for 30 minutes or possibly more.

The Pick 

This boils down to one thing: Can Indiana outshoot South Carolina? The Hoosiers’ 3-point defense is good, but it’s not quite as good as the Gamecocks’ ability to stop the deep shot.

At the same time, the SEC is not a league that shoots the 3 very well. The next-best team is Missouri, which would rank fifth in the Big Ten. I’m not crazy enough to say Indiana wins this game, but I do think the Hoosiers are too good to get this disrespected. I think they push South Carolina before admirably falling in the final minutes.