Indiana vs. Purdue Expert Pick and Prediction – January 31, 2025

INDIANA VS. PURDUE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 31, 2025 — It’s the biggest rivalry in the Crossroads of America, and a game where both teams use the other as a measuring stick.

Indiana’s a blue blood on history, but the Hoosiers haven’t really been an elite program since Bob Knight retired. These days, the Hoosiers are compared to how they match up with Purdue. When they’re able to compete with the Boilers, they’ve got a good chance to make noise. When the Boilermakers blow them out, it’s going to be a forgettable season.

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Purdue is still chasing Indiana’s ghosts. As nice as the Boilermakers’ Final Four banners are, they don’t compare to the five national championship banners Indiana has hanging in Bloomington. Even though Indiana hasn’t added to that since 1987, the fact that Purdue doesn’t have any weighs on everyone in black and gold.

The Boilermakers came close last year with a national title game appearance, but Connecticut proved far too strong. Still, Matt Painter’s team is in a far better situation than Mike Woodson’s. Painter, for all his team’s March criticism, has won four Big Ten titles and made five Sweet 16s in the past seven tournaments. He’ll coach at Purdue until he tells his bosses otherwise. Woodson has been trending in the wrong direction, and the crimson-clad fans are restless as Purdue keeps racking up accolades. If Indiana can’t turn things around fast, Woodson’s time in Bloomington might be running short.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Friday, January 31 at 8 p.m.

Where: Mackey Arena, West Lafayette, Ind.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Indiana vs. Purdue In-Season Trends

Purdue has cooperated beautifully with the spread this year. The Boilers’ past eight games in the Big Ten have all matched their spread result. The Boilers are 7-1 ATS in these games, only failing to cover in a surprise home loss to Ohio State. It’s not likely Purdue has enough time to catch Michigan State (especially having to go to the Breslin Center), but the fact that the Boilers just drilled Michigan says they’re a solid No. 2.

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Indiana’s defense has been disastrous. The Hoosiers have taken a pair of 25-point losses to Illinois and Iowa in their past five games, and they’re just 1-4 in that stretch. The over is 5-1 in Indiana’s past six, with the only reason it wasn’t all six being that Indiana didn’t do its part on offense against Iowa. In the Hoosiers’ past five, no opponent has scored less than 76 points.

The Difference-Makers

What kind of effort is Indiana going to get from Oumar Ballo? Ballo has taken some heat from the writers in Indianapolis lately for putting up empty stat stuffing performance. Basically, his numbers look great, but they don’t really contribute to anything because he’s just fixing what he already did wrong the first time. For example, he’ll get an offensive rebound off a shot he should have made in the first place.

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The line in Indiana is that Matt Painter always has shooters, and Fletcher Loyer needs to be a shooter in this game. The Boilers lead the nation in field goal percentage, and Loyer can get the Mackey crowd into it early if he gets hot.

The Pick

Indiana is hard to trust. The Hoosiers have the talent to make this close, but they usually disappear against Purdue. The Boilers slammed them twice last year, winning both games by more than 20 points. Purdue isn’t quite as strong as last year, but Indiana has stagnated.

If the Boilers shoot as they’re capable of doing, this won’t be all that close. I feel more comfortable playing the total, but I think Purdue should be fine covering.