Indiana vs. Notre Dame Expert Pick and Prediction – December 20, 2024

INDIANA VS. NOTRE DAME EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 20, 2024 — There’s about 198 miles that separate Bloomington and South Bend on the roads of Indiana. On the football field, there’s about a lifetime of separation.

On one hand, Notre Dame remains one of the premier programs in college football. Although the Fighting Irish haven’t won a national title in the past 37 seasons, they’ve won 10 games or more seven times in the past decade. They remain appointment television against any Power 4 opponent, and nobody is surprised to see them here.

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Nobody thought Indiana was going to get anywhere close to this mark. The Hoosiers have long been an afterthought in the Big Ten, and the addition of three traditional powers plus UCLA was supposed to make life very difficult for Indiana. Instead, the Hoosiers went from a 10-loss team in 2023 to an 11-win team in 2024. Indiana’s only defeat came at Ohio State, and while the Hoosiers’ strength of schedule remains a major question, the same holds for the Irish.

Notre Dame didn’t have a great win all season either, as the best win the Irish got was Louisville. Although the Cardinals had a good season, they weren’t exactly a top-quality side. The Irish also carry one embarrassing loss, falling to barely-bowl eligible Northern Illinois. Even though the Irish carry the name, the intimidation factor just isn’t there.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, December 20 at 8 p.m.

Where: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, Ind.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Indiana vs. Notre Dame In-Season Trends

This might be a really bad matchup for Notre Dame. The one thing that Indiana does better than anyone not named Ohio State is shut down the ground game. And running the football has been Notre Dame’s strength all season. When the Irish were at their worst was when teams focused on stopping the running game and dared Riley Leonard to beat them with his arm.

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Against most teams, that hasn’t been an issue. The Irish haven’t failed to cover since a 28-3 win over Miami-Ohio back in Week 4, when they were giving 27 points. Notre Dame might never play the MAC again; the Irish are 0-2 ATS against the MAC (Miami and NIU) and 10-0 ATS against everyone else. Indiana only failed to cover against Ohio State and Michigan inside Big Ten play; otherwise, the Hoosiers have covered in every game since the opener.

Weather

Welcome to December in Big Ten country. Actually, it could have been much worse, given that this is a night kickoff. Temperatures will sit in the high 20s, with a chance of snow flurries. That might look cool on television, but it’s not going to be ideal for running an offense.

The Difference-Makers

How effective will Leonard be against the Hoosier defense? If Indiana can keep him in the pocket, he’s really not capable of winning this game with his arm. The Indiana defense has done a fine job of keeping the ground game contained, but Notre Dame represents a different challenge with Leonard.

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The Hoosiers have been better through the air than on the ground, but Notre Dame’s big weakness on defense is its run game. This might be a game where Justice Ellison gets most of the work instead of quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

The Pick

It’s weird to say it, given the respective histories of the two schools. But this reads like a very bad matchup for Notre Dame. Indiana has been the tougher team in the trenches all year, and the Hoosiers proved that was no fluke when they bottled up Ohio State’s running game. The Buckeyes won that game on special teams, not by shoving Indiana around on the line.

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Notre Dame has not shown it’s capable of winning a game the same way. The Irish have all the questions that exist with Indiana, but because of their name and history, those have been swept aside. The Hoosiers honestly couldn’t have asked for a better matchup here: they face an in-state foe that believes it’s above them, which is why the teams haven’t played since 1991. The point disparity doesn’t make a lot of sense here; Indiana might win this one outright.