Indiana vs. Michigan State Expert Pick and Prediction – November 2, 2024

INDIANA VS. MICHIGAN STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – November 2, 2024 — This is the game that nobody in crimson and cream wants to see right now. Facing Michigan at home is one thing. Going to Ohio State is the test the Hoosiers must pass to reach the Big Ten title game. And everyone in Bloomington is looking forward to pantsing Purdue in the season finale.

But this…this is the game that scares the daylights out of the Hoosier faithful, because it’s the biggest trap on the schedule.

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It’s not that Michigan State is a great, or even a good team. The Spartans are middling, which is to be expected in Jonathan Smith’s first year in East Lansing. (Then again, Curt Cignetti is also in year one and built the house overnight at Indiana.) But they’re at home, and this game comes right before the Michigan-Ohio State double. And that makes this the classic game that Indiana both can’t overlook and is in prime position to overlook.

It does help that Indiana has won on its past two visits to Spartan Stadium. Indiana got more good news in the fact that Kurtis Rourke is healthy enough to start at quarterback. But it doesn’t help that the Hoosiers are the ones with everything to lose here.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, November 2 at 3:30 p.m.

Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, Mich. 

TV: Peacock

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Indiana vs. Michigan State In-Season Trends

When you don’t give up anything in the first quarter, you’re probably going to win a lot of games and cover a lot of games. Indiana is 7-1 ATS for multiple reasons, and that’s one of them. The books also still don’t seem to know what to do with the Hoosiers. Indiana hasn’t played a great schedule, so the books are still hesitant to trust them. 

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Michigan State has gone 1-4 SU but 3-2 ATS in its past five games. The books also don’t seem to know what to do with the Spartans, who keep going into games as an underdog and playing competitive football. They did get drilled in back-to-back games at one point, but getting clobbered by Ohio State and Oregon would happen to almost anybody.

Weather

Temperatures will sit in the mid 50s at kickoff here just as they will in Ann Arbor, so this is perfect fall weather in the Big Ten.

The Difference-Makers

Will Aidan Chiles take care of the football? The answer to that so far this year has been a resounding no, and it’s hurt the Spartans. Chiles has just seven touchdowns against nine interceptions, and Indiana plays opportunistic defense. If he’s off in this game, the Hoosiers will absolutely make the Spartans pay. They got a pick-six last week against Washington, and it might well happen again.

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Kurtis Rourke has been the opposite: takes care of the football and keeps Indiana’s offense moving. It usually takes him a half to get going, but once he does, the Hoosiers have pulled away pretty quick.

The Pick

If Indiana is focused entirely on Michigan State, it wins going away. The Spartans just aren’t good enough to reasonably expect to beat a team that’s firing on all cylinders like the Hoosiers. The question is whether the Hoosiers will have their minds where they need to be. Washington was a potential trap game for Indiana, but that was at home in front of a sold-out stadium.

This will be on the road, which isn’t the worst thing in this series. In a strange quirk, the visiting team has actually won the past four meetings in this series. And with Michigan State’s turnover woes, this seems like it’s going to become five.