INDIANA FEVER VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — July 6, 2024

INDIANA FEVER VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — July 6, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Indiana Fever (8-13 SU, 11-10 ATS) hosting the New York Liberty (17-4 SU, 8-13 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, July 6, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis,  IN

TV: CBS

Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Indiana Fever Have Had An Up-And-Down Season Thus Far

Despite having the top overall pick for the second straight season, the Indiana Fever’s season has been a mixed bag. They posted just three wins through their first 13 games. That was followed up with a season-high four-game winning streak. That four-game winning streak was snapped with back-to-back losses to the Chicago Sky (88-87) and the Seattle Storm.

Indiana got back into the win column with an 88-82 win over the Phoenix Mercury on June 30 but suffered an 88-69 defeat courtesy of the Las Vegas Aces on July 2. In that contest, Kelsey Mitchell led a trio of starters that scored in double figures. She scored a team-high 23 points and grabbed four rebounds.  Although she shot 45 percent from the field overall (9-of-20), Mitchell did knock down five of her 10 attempts from beyond the arc.

Reigning Rookie of the Year, Aliyah Boston poured in 18 points and grabbed 11 rebounds, including five on the offensive glass. Caitlin Clark did not shoot the ball at an efficient clip (4-12 FG and 1-7 3PT), but she finished with a double-double that included 13 points and 11 assists. She also tallied six rebounds as well.

Indiana kept the game close through three quarters, trailing by just six points heading into the final frame. However,  the Aces opened up the final period with a 14-0 run en route to outscoring the Fever by a 23-10 margin, handing the Fever their third loss in four outings.

Can The Liberty Produce Their Second Six-Game Winning Streak Of The Season?

Meanwhile, the Liberty have been playing lights out this season. Yep, they were impressive through their first six games, posting a 4-2 mark during that stretch. But they have been even hotter ever since. They went on an eight-game tear before suffering a 99-93 loss to the Mercury on June 18.

Following that minor hiccup, New York has rattled off five straight wins, including a 76-67 victory over the Minnesota Lynx on Tuesday night. In that game, the Liberty placed three of their starters in double figures, led by a 21-point, 12-rebound, four-assist effort from Jonquel Jones.

To be totally objective, Breanna Stewart had an off-shooting night, to put it nicely. She finished 5-of-20 overall and missed all five of her 3-point attempts. On the other side of the narrative, the reigning MVP scored 17 points and pulled down a game-high 17 rebounds. At the other end of the floor, Stewart had two steals and two blocked shots.

Sabrina Ionescu (7-20 FG and 1-10 3PT) also finished with 17 points, five boards, and five dimes. This game was a defensive clinic of sorts, as both teams shot below 40 percent overall and less than 30 percent from distance. However, despite its poor shooting, New York stretched its winning streak to five games, outscoring Minnesota by an 18-8 margin in the final frame.

Will the Liberty win six consecutive games for the second time this season, or will the Fever pull off an improbable upset? Now that we have set the table for the Eastern Conference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Liberty opened as a 7.5-point favorite. But the line has moved to 10 points at the time of this writing (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Fever have covered the spread six times in their last eight outings.
• Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last six “home” games against New York.
• Meanwhile, the Liberty are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.
• In its last six road games, New York is 5-1 against the spread.

Prediction: New York Liberty (-10)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 171.5 points (per BleacherNation.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• In the Fever’s last 19 outings, the OVER total is 14-5.
• The total has gone OVER seven times in Indiana’s last eight matchups against New York.
• In the Liberty’s last seven outings, the OVER total has prevailed five times.
• The teams have exceeded the points total for this matchup four times in their last five head-to-head encounters.

Prediction: OVER 171.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Fresh off her 23-point, four-rebound performance against the defending champions, Kelsey Mitchell is my key player to watch in this matchup. She currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 16.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 16.5 points (via DraftKings).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Mitchell is putting up 16.6 points per contest.
• In the previous three matchups against New York this season, Mitchell has averaged 14.3 points per contest on 38.6 percent shooting overall and 35 percent from the 3-point line.
• Mitchell has played against Eastern Conference teams 13 times this season, averaging 16.6 points per outing.
• In eight home contests, the Indiana Fever guard is averaging 16.5 points per game.
• Over her last five outings, Mitchell has averaged 18.3 points, 2.1 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Kelsey Mitchell OVER 16.5 points