Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces Expert Pick – June 24, 2023

INDIANA FEVER VS. LAS VEGAS ACES EXPERT PICK – JUNE 24, 2023 – Happy Saturday basketball fans and welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. After my earlier look at the Mercury v Storm, here is the other featured game from today’s slate as the Indiana Fever (5-7) take on the Las Vegas Aces (11-1). 

Despite the disparity of the win-loss records, both teams are riding multi-game winning streaks into this matchup. 

Here is a look at which team will extend its winning streak and why. 

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, June 24, 2023 at 9:00 PM ET

Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena, Las Vegas, NV

TV: NBA TV

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of June 24, 2023

Indiana Fever vs. Las Vegas Aces – Season Trends

The Indiana Fever got off to a rough start this season, to put it nicely.

They dropped six of their first eight contests, which is a big reason for their sub-.500 record. However, they have begun trending in the right direction, posting three wins across their last four outings. This includes an 80-68 win over the Seattle Storm on Thursday night.

Kelsey Mitchell paced the team’s scoring with 25 points along with three assists. She shot 8-for-16 from the floor, including a stellar 7-for-11 effort from beyond the arc. 

The Fever’s Offense

Despite its early struggles, Indiana isn’t doing too badly from an offensive standpoint. They are ranked sixth in scoring (82.6 PPG) and they have the fifth-best offensive rating.

Unfortunately, the Fever are not as prolific when it comes to playing defense. They are ranked eighth in both scoring defense and defensive rating. Again, not too terrible, but there is certainly room for improvement. 

Ace in the Hole

On the other side of this matchup, we have a Las Vegas team that is clicking on all cylinders. The Aces started the season with a seven-game winning streak before falling to the Connecticut Sun by a 94-77 decision back on June 8.

Following that setback, Las Vegas has reeled off four consecutive victories, including a lopsided 99-79 win over the short-handed Phoenix Mercury on Wednesday night. Jackie Young led the way with 23 points and five assists. She shot 8-for-12 from the floor and converted five of her seven attempts from 3-point range. 

Remember when I mentioned that the Aces are clicking on all cylinders? Here are the reasons for that sentiment. Las Vegas is ranked first in both scoring (92.5 PPG) and they have the best offensive rating in the WNBA (114.1 points per 100 possessions). Let’s also remember they have the best point differential in the league (plus-16.1). 

This squad makes the grade at the defensive end of the court as well. Las Vegas is ranked second in scoring defense (76.3 PPG) and they have the second-best defensive rating as well – giving up just 94.1 points per 100 possessions. 

Here are my betting trends for this matchup.

The Picks

The Spread

The Las Vegas Aces are a whopping 15.5-point favorite in this contest. I understand the rationale behind a large spread here, being that these are the defending champs, but wow. Usually, I proceed with caution when it comes to large spreads. I did take a leap of faith in last week’s contest between the Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty. New York was favored by 12.5 points and they won by 18. 

On the other hand, these two teams played three weeks ago and the Aces narrowly escaped with an 84-80 victory. Despite that performance, though, they are a heavy underdog in this one. Although I am NOT totally comfortable doing so, here are a few reasons, why I am going to take that leap of faith a second time. 

• Las Vegas is 5-1 against the spread in their last six contests against teams with a losing record. The Fever are 5-7. 
• The Aces are 4-1 ATS in their last five contests following an SU win, and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. 
• The defending champs hold a 9-3 record ATS in the last 12 times they faced an opponent on two days of rest. 
• In their last 26 home games, Las Vegas is an impressive 21-5 ATS. 
• The Fever are just 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two ball clubs. 

Prediction: Las Vegas Aces (-15)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 168 points. Here is a look at why I am going with the UNDER here. 

The UNDER has it for Indiana in each of the team’s last five games against opponents with a winning record. The Aces are 11-1. 

In the Fever’s last five games that were played on a Saturday, the UNDER has prevailed four times. 

The UNDER total has hit five times in Indiana’s last seven games against Western Conference opponents. 

Meanwhile, the UNDER is a perfect 5-0 in the Aces’ last five contests against teams with a losing record. The Fever are 5-7.

The UNDER has prevailed eight times in Las Vegas’ last nine home games. And the UNDER is 5-0 in the last head-to-head meetings between these two teams. 

Prediction: UNDER 168 points

Player Prop Bet

My player to watch in this contest is Aces’ guard Jackie Young. She currently has -145 odds to score more than 19.5 points and +115 odds of scoring less than 19.5 points. 

In her fifth season with the team, Young is averaging a career-best 21.0 points per contest. She is also posting career-highs in steals (1.6), overall shooting (60.4 percent), and 3-point shooting (50 percent). 

Also, Young has scored at least 23 points in each of the last three outings. 

Prediction: Jackie Young OVER 19.5 points