Illinois vs. Nebraska Expert Pick and Prediction – September 20, 2024

ILLINOIS VS. NEBRASKA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – September 20, 2024 — Can this Illinois squad execute better than it did against Central Michigan? The Fighting Illini were clearly the better team on Saturday, but they made the job much tougher than necessary by committing far too many penalties. It wasn’t until the third quarter that Illinois could really feel safe, and only because the Fighting Illini came up with a quick strike to start the second half.

Against Nebraska, waiting that long isn’t going to work. The Cornhuskers have emerged as a team that can hit you quick and keep you from ever getting comfortable in the game in Matt Rhule’s second year. Against Northern Iowa, it was more of the same for the Big Red. The Huskers jumped on the Panthers early, then spent the second half tapering against an overmatched opponent.

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If Illinois is going to compete with Nebraska, it’s got to do a better job of winning its battles at the line of scrimmage. The Fighting Illini allowed far too many yards from Central Michigan, giving up 4.3 yards per carry. Nebraska didn’t run the ball often against Northern Iowa, but that was because it didn’t need to do it. The Cornhuskers can run the ball when the situation calls for it, and this line is capable of shoving teams around for 60 minutes.

If Illinois can’t execute better in the trenches than it did last week, this 3-0 start is going to come to a crashing halt in Lincoln.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, September 20 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Neb.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 19th, 2024.

Illinois vs. Nebraska In-Season Trends

Lincoln has been a place for points, especially when the team from the Land of Lincoln (why don’t these two have a rivalry trophy by now?) is involved. Illinois has averaged 30.67 points per game on its past three visits to Lincoln, and given that the teams used to play in the Big Ten West before the end of divisions, that meant these were evenly spaced out. In fact, Illinois has topped 26 points in five of its past six against the Cornhuskers.

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But last year was the first time Nebraska turned the tables. Granted, the Huskers were playing with a hand tied behind their back at quarterback, but that didn’t affect their defense. Nebraska won last year in Champaign by a 20-7 count, and its defense is good enough to carry the day again.

Weather

This will not be great football weather. Temperatures could climb as high as 89 degrees, and thunderstorms will be in the area. In short, it’s not going to be a great time to play a Friday night game.

The Difference-Makers

Pat Bryant made himself a big part of the offense against Central Michigan. He hauled in seven passes for 102 yards and two scores, and it’s clear that he’s a favorite target of Luke Altmyer. Illinois has enough weapons to win when Bryant isn’t as involved, as happened against Kansas, but Bryant does have four of the Illini’s six passing scores.

Related: Why Clemson Coach Dabo Swinney is Sinking Fast

Dylan Raiola has performed very well as a freshman and has proven the missing piece for Nebraska from last year. As long as he keeps making good decisions with the football, Nebraska can count on its defense to do the rest.

The Pick

The Husker defense appears to be for real. Nebraska has simply overpowered its first three opponents, and the Huskers allowed just 20 points in the process. Illinois didn’t look comfortable running the ball against a Central Michigan team that had been shredded the week before, which made no sense at all. Nebraska is a more aggressive and more talented defense than CMU, which should mean a tough day for the Illini.

Nebraska won this game by 13 last year with little to nothing at quarterback. This time should be a similar margin, as the Huskers have an offense at their disposal now.