Houston vs. West Virginia Expert Pick and Prediction – January 29, 2025

HOUSTON VS. WEST VIRGINIA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 29, 2025 — Can West Virginia pull down another big score? The Mountaineers have had one of the biggest variances in the Big 12 this year, as they’ve taken down Kansas, Arizona and Iowa State. They’ve also managed to lose to Kansas State and Arizona State, two of the weaker sides in the league.

So that leaves West Virginia with a very weird resume, which has it squarely on the 9 line for the tournament. The Mountaineers could easily make a run to the Final Four, but they could just as easily find themselves in the NIT. That’s just life for a team that’s capable of beating anyone and losing to just about anyone.

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Houston has been nothing short of outstanding, but is in prime trap territory. The Cougars should have lost to Kansas in Lawrence, but the Jayhawks managed to fritter it away in regulation, allowing Houston to escape in double overtime. That’s the kind of game you’re not supposed to win, and it’s the kind of game that can stick with a team for a bit.

The Cougars might not have their minds on West Virginia so readily, especially after surviving. A loss might have had Houston ready and focused for West Virginia, but this is a prime trouble spot. There’s also the fact that Houston hasn’t been anywhere near as strong on the road as it is at home. The Cougars nearly lost to UCF away as well, and they’ve fallen on neutral courts three times this year. With West Virginia showing a penchant for these wins, this might be prime opportunity for a key Quad 1 win.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, January 29 at 7 p.m.

Where: WVU Coliseum, Morgantown, W. Va.

TV: ESPN+

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Houston vs. West Virginia In-Season Trends

Thanks to a quirk of scheduling last year, this is Houston’s first trip to Morgantown. The Cougars just joined the Big 12 last year, and both prior meetings have come in Texas. In the first meeting, the Houston defense did what it usually does, suffocating West Virginia and holding the Mountaineers to 54 points.

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Even at its slow pace, Houston is usually an under team because the Cougars defend so beautifully. Oddsmakers know the Cougars are going to defend, but they still usually can’t set the number low enough for what Houston does. West Virginia is usually solid on defense as well, and the Mountaineers love to take the air out of the ball. The Mountaineers have played to the under in seven of their past nine games overall.

The Difference-Makers

Amani Hansberry was the one player that Houston couldn’t check in the first meeting. When Hansberry can find his shot off the bench, he’s very dangerous. When he isn’t shooting well, he can be a liability. Against Houston, he scored 16 points because he buried three from behind the arc. But he hasn’t shot well otherwise, going just 9-for-32 overall in his past three games.

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The more J’Wan Roberts touches the ball, the more effective he is. Roberts has gone for 20+ points and nine rebounds in two of his past three games, and he shot 10-for-13 against the Mountaineers last time. Needless to say, West Virginia has to deny him the ball.

The Pick

The conditions for a potential upset are too ripe to ignore. Houston won the first game easily, but West Virginia has been a different beast at home. Plus, the Cougars are kind of playing with house money after winning at Kansas. You don’t win at Kansas very often, especially not when you don’t deserve to win at Kansas.

This feels like an escape for the Cougars. I believe they outlast West Virginia, but outlasting won’t be enough to cover almost 10 points.