Houston vs. Kansas Expert Pick and Prediction – January 25, 2025

HOUSTON VS. KANSAS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 25, 2025 — As usual, Houston is off to a fantastic start in league play. And just as commonly, the Cougars are getting no credit for it. Houston doesn’t have a single bad loss on its resume, taking overtime defeats to Alabama and San Diego State, along with a five-pointer against Auburn.

All of those were on a neutral floor, and the last of those came at the end of November. Houston has ripped off 11 wins in a row since the defeat to the Aztecs, and the Cougars are leading the Big 12.

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And that fact staggers Kansas, which isn’t used to looking up at anybody in the league. The Jayhawks won the league every year from 2005 to 2018 until Baylor finally broke the Kansas stranglehold, and in recent years, Kansas has found itself looking up at Iowa State and now Houston. The Jayhawks are still a strong contender in the league, but things clearly aren’t as rosy as they’ve been in Lawrence.

This is a big chance for Kansas to turn that around. The Jayhawks already took a loss at Iowa State, and they weren’t that competitive with the Cyclones in Ames. This is Kansas’ best opportunity to pick up a huge win on its home floor, where the Jayhawks almost never lose. Key word is almost, because Kansas has already been beaten at home by West Virginia. And while the Mountaineers are a potential tournament team, they’re no Houston.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, January 25 at 6:30 p.m.

Where: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, Kan.

TV: ESPN

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Houston vs. Kansas In-Season Trends

Betting team total under has been a fantastic way to make money off of Houston. The Cougars play at the slowest tempo in college basketball now that Virginia’s Tony Bennett has retired, and they have the best defense in the nation. It’s rare for anyone to break 60 against Kelvin Sampson’s defense, yet books don’t want to set the number that low. For the year, only four teams have topped 60 points against Houston: the three it lost to and Central Florida.

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For Kansas, the strategy has been simple: hammer the under. The under is 16-2 in the Jayhawks’ games this season, and only Kansas State and North Carolina managed to hit the number. Otherwise, Kansas is a great defensive team that doesn’t put up more points than needed.

The Difference-Makers

L.J. Cryer was part of that Baylor team that broke Kansas’ hold on the Big 12, and he’s just as comfortable playing in Houston’s slow style. He’s also deadly at the free throw line, hitting 94.6% from the stripe.

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The Houston defense really only has one weakness: the perimeter. Unfortunately for Kansas, that’s also its offense’s biggest weakness. The Jayhawks have the best interior scorer in the nation in Hunter Dickinson, but Houston has the best interior defense in the nation. This will be strength on strength.

The Pick

It’s usually disastrous to pick against Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks’ home court advantage is legendary for a reason. But this Houston team has all the advantages otherwise. Houston plays within its system, doesn’t get intimidated and knows exactly how to handle this type of game. The Jayhawks are used to playing defense, but this is how Houston makes its living.

Even in Lawrence, the Cougars should be the better team.