Houston vs. Arizona State Expert Pick and Prediction – February 18, 2025

HOUSTON VS. ARIZONA STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 18, 2025 — These are the games that teams like Houston absolutely hate. The Cougars aren’t going to get anything out of beating Arizona State. All they can do is damage an already stellar resume.

The good news for the Cougars is that they have a free mistake. By virtue of beating Arizona by four in Tucson, Houston has a two-game lead in the Big 12. The Cougars also hold the tiebreaker over the Wildcats, as they’ll only meet once this year. However, Houston does not hold the tiebreaker over Texas Tech, and if the Cougars blow their freebie here, things get dicey.

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That’s because Houston has both the Red Raiders and Iowa State waiting in the wings after playing in Tempe. The Cyclones still have an outside shot at first place, and even if they don’t get there, they’d like to hold a top-four spot and earn a double bye. As for Texas Tech, the Red Raiders already won in Houston and get to welcome the Cougars for the return game in Lubbock 48 hours after Houston meets Iowa State.

Into that situation step the Sun Devils and coach Bobby Hurley, who has seemingly been on the hot seat from Day 1 in the desert. Arizona State is not an easy job — at all — evidenced by the fact that Hurley is the second-winningest coach in Sun Devils history. Still, he’s only made three NCAA tournaments in nine years, and never without a stop in Dayton for the First Four. This year isn’t happening either, even though ASU really doesn’t carry bad losses.

The Big 12 is a meat grinder, and out of the Sun Devils’ 13 defeats, 10 of them have been Quad 1 losses. ASU’s only loss outside the top 100 was Oklahoma State, and that happened in Stillwater. Still, 12-13 is 12-13, and there’s not likely to be a lifeline like with Florida baseball. If Hurley is going to keep coaching in Tempe, he’s got to at least make a run toward the bubble.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, February 18 at 9 p.m.

Where: Desert Financial Arena, Tempe, Ariz.

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Houston vs. Arizona State In-Season Trends

This is a battle of contrasting styles. Hurley has loved to push the tempo, dating back to his days at Buffalo. (You don’t hire Nate Oats as your top assistant unless you want to push the pace). And ASU has gone over in its past five games, in part because the Sun Devils don’t really do slowdowns. They aren’t terrible on defense, but there are usually a lot of possessions in an Arizona State game.

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Houston is a hard no in that category. The Cougars rank 361st in tempo nationally, ahead of only Virginia, North Texas and Drake. Yet the Cougars have also gone over five times in their past seven games because they’re really efficient at scoring the basketball. Houston games go over almost exclusively because of the Cougar offense, as only UCF and Auburn have managed to break 65 on Houston in 40 minutes.

The Difference-Makers

Can Milos Uzan be as efficient as he was last time? Uzan shot 66.7% from the floor against Arizona, including hitting all of his 3-point attempts on his way to scoring 19 points. But the Cougars’ offense wasn’t much outside of Uzan and L.J. Cryer, as the rest of the team only scored 28 points for the game. Houston usually doesn’t need much more than two guys, but getting that would really help.

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BJ Freeman didn’t come out for a minute in the Sun Devils’ double-overtime loss to Texas Tech, scoring 21 points in the process. He forms one-third of the Sun Devils’ attack, along with Alston Mason and Adam Miller. Whoever can get shots against this defense needs to hit them.

The Pick

The line movement toward Houston reads trap. The Cougars have the talent to overwhelm Arizona State, but the Sun Devils are far better than their record shows and playing at home. Houston is in the midst of one of its most brutal stretches of the season. The Cougars just survived Arizona in Tucson, and now they’ve got to avoid thinking about the Iowa State-Texas Tech double going into Tempe.

That’s a lot for any team to handle. If anyone can do it, it would be Houston, but this feels like a game that’s far closer than expected.