Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Expert Pick – September 8, 2024

Two sophomore quarterbacks will go at it to start the season. C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson have a lot of hype around them entering this season, but one will begin with a loss. The Texans are the favorites to win the AFC South, while the Colts are third behind the Jaguars. This game is an important one to start the season and could loom large at the end of the year. Read more Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts expert pick

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 8, 2024 @ 1:00 AM EST

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

TV: CBS

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Houston Texans

The Texans brought in a lot of talent to surround their young quarterback. Joe Mixon is coming off his fourth 1,000-yard season as he joins the Texans from Cincinnati. Houston averaged 96.9 rushing yards per game last season, which Mixon should get over 100.

They also added Stefon Diggs, who has had four consecutive 100-catch and six 1,000-yard seasons. He likely gives the Texans the best receiver corps in the league, along with Nico Collins and Tank Dell. Houston also added Danielle Hunter, who has 87.5 career sacks, to their defensive front.

Indianapolis Colts

The Colts are returning most of the team that they had last year. They drafted Adonai Mitchell in the second round of the draft. He ran a 4.34 40-yard dash and 55 receptions for 845 and 11 touchdowns at Texas last season. Mitchell should help this young receiver group led by Michael Pittman Jr.

Anthony Richardson only played four games last season before undergoing season-ending surgery. His accuracy was an issue through those four games, but he put teams on notice with his rushing. An underrated addition to this team in the offseason was Joe Flacco. Flacco is a veteran quarterback who has won on the biggest stage. He can teach Richardson to be a real professional and provide a quality backup should he miss some time.

Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Head-To-Head

The Colts and Texans split the season series last year, with the road team each winning a game. Stroud had two good games against this young secondary. He threw for 384 yards and two touchdowns in week two but got sacked six times. He threw 264 yards and two touchdowns in week 17 to clinch the AFC South. The Colts allowed 226 passing yards per game last season while giving up 24.4 points per game.

Richardson did not play the full game against them in week two. He still managed to run for two touchdowns and throw for 56 yards. The Texans allowed 234.1 passing yards per game but held teams to 96.6 rushing yards per game. Their biggest downfall defending the rush was allowing the most rushing touchdowns (9) to quarterbacks this season.

The key injury in this game is Josh Downs, wide receiver for the Colts, who hurt his ankle in training camp, is out. Matt Gay, the kicker, is listed as questionable with a hernia, which could cause problems. M.J. Stewart, safety, is out for the Texans as he deals with a knee injury.

Prediction

Over/Under

The total for this game on DraftKings is 48.5, and I would play the over. These offenses have good matchups and familiarity with these defenses and should start scoring quickly.

Spread

The Texans are three-point favorites at Indianapolis. I would play the Colts +3, but do not feel great about anything below that key number.

Player Prop

Anthony Richardson is +130 to score a touchdown, which is a great price. He is as low as +106 at other sportsbooks and is facing the defense that allowed the most rushing touchdowns to quarterbacks last season.